Using Expected Goals (xG) data from Infogol, Tom Victor provides La Liga result and scoreline predictions as three teams remain in title contention...
Osasuna to climb back above Cádiz
Cádiz mathematically guaranteed their survival with a weekend win over Huesca, and might even be able to set their sights on the top half of the table. However, Osasuna know a victory at El Sadar will see them leapfrog their midweek opponents, and Infogol's model expects Jagoba Arrasate's team to fall back on their improving home form after three straight winless games on the road.
Alavés to leave Elche in deep trouble
Neither of these sides has won in either of its last two outings, meaning Tuesday's clash at Martínez Valero looks huge. Alavés are just the right side of the drop zone, sitting two points ahead of Elche, but the hosts' 0.72 xGF at home is expected to count against them and allow Javier Calleja's visitors to move within touching distance of La Liga safety.
Barcelona to get back on track with away win
Barcelona found themselves frustrated at the Wanda Metropolitano on Saturday, failing to get a lucky break in a broadly even clash with Atlético Madrid, meaning Ronald Koeman's men probably need maximum points from their final three games to have any chance of the title. A trip to a Levante side averaging 1.83 xGA per home game might be the easiest of the trio, though, with Barça firm favourites at Ciutat de Valencia.
Sevilla to seal comfortable home win
Real Madrid's late equaliser on Sunday ensured Sevilla's title hopes are firmly (if not mathematically) over, but Julen Lopetegui's side can still finish strongly. Managerless Valencia would be unlikely to put up much resistance even in normal circumstances, with only one team picking up fewer points on the road, and Infogol expects the hosts to be comfortable in this one providing there's not too heavy a hangover from the weekend setback.
Celta to claim a fourth straight win
Celta might have ridden their luck a little to win at Villarreal over the weekend, but Eduardo Coudet's side are having no trouble creating chances, averaging 2.00 xGF across their last three games to earn three victories. The same can't be said for Getafe, who drew another blank on Sunday and are being made to wait to secure their safety after a run of just one win in nine.
Huesca to fall short against in-form Athletic
After missing a chance to escape the bottom three over the weekend, Huesca now take on an Athletic side who struck twice late on to beat them at San Mamés in December. The visitors are five unbeaten since losing the Copa Del Rey final, averaging just 0.93 xGA in the process, and Infogol's model backs Marcelino's men to keep out their struggling opponents.
Atléti to continue stumbling towards title
Three wins from the last seven means Atlético fans might count themselves fortunate to see their team atop the table, and a meeting with Real Sociedad won't be straightforward. Infogol's model has little to choose between the two teams, but the league leaders are narrow favourites to complete a double over Imanol Alguacil's men and move within two games of a first title since 2014.
Valladolid to miss chance against Villarreal
Valladolid are still above the drop zone, but might not be by the time their game against Villarreal kicks off. Sergio González's team haven't been outside the bottom six in 2021, and Infogol's model expects a poor home record to hold them back against visitors who comfortably won the reverse fixture. The hosts are expected to score, but they haven't recorded a home clean sheet all season long.
Eibar to earn crucial win
Eibar had looked dead and buried after a 15-game winless run, but back-to-back wins mean another victory on Thursday could potentially lift them up to 17th. José Luis Mendilibar's team are slight favourites against Betis, according to Infogol's model, and the worst home record in La Liga might be balanced out by the confidence gained from a victory at Benito Villamarín earlier in the season.
Real Madrid to preserve title hopes
While a stoppage-time equaliser on Sunday night kept Real Madrid above rivals Barcelona, they failed to secure the victory which would have left their fate in their hands. Zinedine Zidane's side will once again know what Barça and Atlético Madrid have done before kicking off themselves, and this time an away return of 1.94 xGA per game can carry them through against a Granada side with little to play for.