Football Accumulator Tips: Back Andy Robson's near 6/1 four-fold on Saturday

• Watford and Blackburn heading in different directions

• Play the percentages in National League encounter

• Finish the Acca with trip to Belgium

It is time to spread some Christmas cheer in the pursuit of profit and I have found the shrewdest selections on the card to combine into an accumulator priced up at just under 6/1 on the Betfair Sportsbook.

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Leg 1 - Blackburn v Watford - Sat, 15:00
Tip: Watford DNB 6/52.20

Blackburn boss Jon Dahl Tomasson is a big fan of a bit of positive affirmation.

The Dane repeatedly describes their home ground as Fortress Ewood, and whilst many other managers may indeed typically describe Ewood Park as a 'tough place to go', the data would suggest that this may be a bit of a fallacy.

Rovers have the poorest home record in the top half and have lost more matches than they have won at Ewood so far this season. Taking their last ten home matches as a sample size, Rovers haven't won the xG battle convincingly since their home defeat to Swansea five home games ago.

There has been a definite shift in Rovers' ability to create chances, and though there is plenty of mitigation in the form of injuries, Blackburn have slipped from one of the best to a mid-table level of xG created.

This should fall into Watford's hands as the Hornets are on a broadly opposite trajectory. Valerian Ismael has reached a level of consistency in terms of selection, style, and tactics, that allows each player to know their role well.

The use of a central striker surrounded by power, pace, and technique is certainly helping them to form part of the play-off race. Recent away form has been good with only one defeat in six - to Leicester - and includes two wins against Hull and Preston.

The introduction of Jake Livermore, Ismael Koné, and Edo Kayembe as a midfield combination has been another key aspect of Watford's improvement, and, as an interesting side bet to the main nap it is worth looking at Kayembe and Koné's shot and goal markets. Both players get forward a lot in the manner of Manchester City's 'free 8s' and they have both been getting a lot of shots away of late.

Blackburn are soon getting some key players back, Sam Gallagher, Dom Hyam, and Joe Rankin-Costello were all back to training this week, and at that point, some reassessment may be in order, but Watford look a good price to emerge from Ewood with another away victory.

Leg 2 - Stirling v Queen of the South - Sat, 15:00
Tip: Queen of the South Double Chance 8/131.61

Queen of the South should take something from their weekend match against an injury-hit Stirling Albion side that is struggling badly for home form.

For their part, Queens come into this encounter after back-to-back wins against Montrose and Edinburgh City. If the latter was expected against a crisis-hit club, how the Dumfries side won at Links Park suggests that they could finally be on an upward trend.

Marvin Bartley's side do have a decent away record, with four wins from eight games, which contrasts to Stirling's home form.

The Binos have not won at Forthbank since claiming 1-0 victories in their opening two matches of the season, and when faced with ninth-placed Annan last weekend, they were only able to draw 1-1, having to come from behind to do so.

Injuries have stacked up for Darren Young's outfit in recent weeks, which goes some way to explaining a poor run of form that has seen them win only twice in their last 14. These problems only seemed to worsen last weekend when they lost key central midfielder Jack Leitch to an ankle issue and Dale Carrick, their scorer last weekend, is a further doubt.

Although Stirling won 1-0 in Dumfries back in early October, the odds of them repeating that success look slim and the value of Queens to take something back down the road looks excellent.

Leg 3 - Wealdstone v Hartlepool - Sat, 15:00
Tip: Both Teams to Score 1/21.50

A clash between two sides that have proven to be on the more entertaining side this season, so let's start with the numbers.

Hartlepool United have seen 74% of their 23 matches finish with both sides having scored, including nine of their 11 away matches. Wealdstone are at 64% over their 22 league matches but that increases to 73% at home thanks to their improved attacking input and results on their own turf. Indeed, Wealdstone have seen both teams score in each of their last five at home and Hartlepool in eight of their last nine overall, including their last four away from home.

There is a stylistic clash. Wealdstone are fluid in shape and play an open, possession-heavy style of football designed to take risks in defensive positions to create opportunities while Hartlepool have gone down the route of pushing bodies forward to score goals, leaving them open at the back.

The Stones are in close to full health heading into this one with the uber-creative Max Kretzschmar fit again and competing with top scorer Tahvon Campbell, Sean Adarkwa, Nathan Bowen, Tarryn Allarakhia and Sam Bowen for a starting spot.

Hartlepool have had a soft centre all season and that reared its head once more with John Askey making at least two changes to his defensive structure in six of his last seven matches.

Yet with Emmanuel Dieseruvwe up top, who has 17 goal contributions to his name, and Callum Cooke, who assisted all three goals in the recent win over York City, they're always good for a goal.

Leg 4 - Royal Antwerp v Westerlo - Sat, 17:15
Tip: Royal Antwerp to Win 3/101.30

Mark van Bommel's Antwerp side currently sit fourth having stretched their unbeaten run to eight matches domestically with a 1-1 draw against Anderlecht last weekend.

In fact, they haven't lost a home game all season against Belgian opposition and have only conceded four goals in their nine league matches, scoring 22 themselves.

Westerlo have given themselves some cause for optimism in the past few weeks as back-to-back wins against relegation rivals Kortrijk and Eupen have provided welcome relief for their supporters. However, despite those narrow victories, the visitors still occupy the bottom four places in the league table and this game represents a more difficult task.

The absence of Turkish defender Emin Bayern through suspension feels like a significant loss for Rik De Mil's side, with Bayern being one of the few standouts this season for the club.

The home side has really been clicking into gear of late, especially on home soil, and with Westerlo's struggles on the road, they are taken to win this one comfortably.

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