After picking up a welcome winner in Nicaragua, Kev's looking for another one in Turkmenistan.
"Stretching back into last season, Ahal have won their last eight league matches, and they've made life tough for their old foes Altyn Asyr in recent clashes."
League leaders to succeed again
Altyn Asyr v Ahal
Thursday 30 April, 14:30
A mixed picture yesterday. In Belarus, our lay of Shakhtar Soligorsk was looking great going into the 58th minute, as Dinamo Brest were 2-0 up. 17 minutes later, Dinamo were 4-2 down, and that's the way it stayed. There was similar frustration in the other cup semi-final, as BATE Borisov led Slavia Mozyr 2-0 at half time, but the scoreboard remained stubbornly frozen, nixing our Over 2.5 Goals bet. Thank the football gods then for Nicaragua's Managua, who did the business for us in a 4-2 win over Walter Ferretti.
Right, now that the admin is out of the way, let's head to Turkmenistan. The league leaders Ahal, who have won all four of their matches, are visiting Altyn Asyr, who have only won once but are unbeaten.
If you stretch back into last season, Ahal have won their last eight games in the Yokary Liga. In each of the last three seasons, they have ended up as runners-up, with today's opponents Altyn Asyr winning the title in all three campaigns. Indeed, Altyn Asyr have won the league in each of the last six seasons.
This season, the perennial table-toppers have been a bit underwhelming. They have drawn three of their four games 1-1, and their only win was against Merw, who are bottom of the eight-team table. They are however a formidable force on home soil, losing just five of their last 75 league matches at their base in Ashgabat.
Ahal have only lost one of the clubs' last six meetings, and although Altyn Asyr's incredible home record makes them the worthy favourites, I think there's value in backing the visitors to pick up at least a point. Ahal are on a great run, and haven't conceded a single goal this season.
You could use the Exchange to back Draw and Away on the Double Chance market at [1.75], or you could use the Sportsbook to double up that outcome with an Over 0.5 Goals bet to give you combined odds of [1.99]. Given Ahal's defensive record, I can't totally rule out the goalless draw, so I'll go for the former bet.
Points Staked: 64
Points Returned: 53.91
P/L: -10.09 points
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Back Draw and Away in the Double Chance market at [1.75]