Saturday Football Cheat Sheet: FA Cup 3rd Round best bets and more

• Goals backed in Tyne-Wear derby

• Boro to KO Villa in tea-time 'cupset'

• 6/17.00 League 1 Bet Builder and much more

FA Cup 3rd Round Tips and Predictions

12:45 - Sunderland v Newcastle: Back Magpies in double

Dan Fitch: "The FA Cup provides a rare Tyne-Wear derby when Sunderland take on Newcastle. The hosts are unbeaten in their last three games (W2 D1), with Michael Beale's appointment as manager having an impact.

"In contrast, Newcastle are really struggling and have lost their last four games, but they do have added class. Combine the Magpies double chance with both teams to score at 10/11."

12:30 - Millwall v Leicester: Back Foxes in the Lions' Den

Andy Robson: "If this was a league match one would expect Leicester to be a much shorter price, so the question is, what are the anticipated differences that have affected the price, and how much of a difference to the strength of the respective teams do they make?

"The first thing to address is the motivation of both clubs. Millwall's recent good run has pulled them fairly comfortably clear of danger, and Leicester now have a 10-point gap to Ipswich, and a 13-point cushion to third place. So both clubs should feel like they can afford a cup run, which is good news for Leicester.

"The next consideration is how much rotation will occur in both teams. Joe Edwards has already said that there will be 'enforced changes' to his Lions side, which is understandable given the recent hectic schedule in the Championship."

17:30 - Middlesbrough v Aston Villa: Back hosts in 5/1 'cupset'

Andy Schooler: "Aston Villa sit second in the Premier League but, in this day and age, should they really be just 1.6 to win away to a Championship side in the third round of the FA Cup?

"OK, if they put out a full-strength side, Villa should be able to see off mid-table Boro. But that's a big if. We all know about how the top-flight teams often see the FA Cup as an excuse to rest players these days. It makes betting on the competition a potential minefield.

"Waiting for the team announcements is the safe thing to do but by then potential for grabbing some value may have gone...

"At the prices, Boro look tempting to spring the upset. They've got up for big games at the Riverside this season with three of the top five - Leicester, Southampton and West Brom - already beaten here.

"Carrick's men have also been solid performers in the League Cup, albeit they are yet to face Premier League opponents in that competition. Laying Villa on the Exchange is another approach worth considering."

EFL Tips and Predictions

12:30 League 1 - Fleetwood v Derby: Back Rams in 6/1 treble

Alan Dudman: "Derby will need to be tighter at the back than they were on New Year's Day with the 2-3 loss at home to Peterborough. It was a breathless start with two goals in the first 10 minutes and Posh nicked it with a pair of late goals themselves.

"Whilst the Rams are short in price, their away record is actually stronger than the one at Pride Park with eight wins and just 13 conceded on the road.

"Fleetwood have been busy this week with a new manager in Charlie Adam and also a forward in Ronan Coughlan, and the 27yo has a good pedigree in Ireland with a record 37 goals in all competitions for the League of Ireland Premier Division side last season.

"The Cod Army are bottom and barely score a goal at home - which cost Lee Johnson his job before Adam, and it's hard to fancy the hosts here."

Serie A Tips & Predictions

19:45 - Sassuolo v Fiorentina: Back the Viola in double

Dan Fitch: "Fiorentina will be hoping to cement their place in the top four when they travel to Sassuolo on Saturday night.

"The Viola moved into fourth place last weekend with a 1-0 home win against Torino. It was the third successive game that they had won by that scoreline. It extended their unbeaten record to eight games (W5 D3).

"Sassuolo are down in 16th place and are in poor form, without a win in six (D1 L5). This includes a 3-1 loss at Atalanta in the Coppa Italia on Wednesday. Though Fiorentina have been keeping things very tight of late, the hosts normally score, even in defeat. Let's go with an away win and both teams to score at 11/4."

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