EFL League One and League Two Tips: Adam in for baptism of fire in weekend accas

• Derby on Sky once more and should win

• Back the draw in big game in League Two

• Alan Dudman has 6/17.00 and 14/115.00 multiples

League One

Leg 1: Port Vale v Charlton Athletic, Saturday 15:00: Back Port Vale

Vale are favourites for this at 7/52.40 compared to Charlton's 9/52.80 and for once, Charlton look the right price as they are down to 14th and head into Saturday after three straight losses. Another one will make life difficult for manager Michael Appleton.

Charlton are winless in their last three away league games against Port Vale too (D2 L1) since a 1-0 win in April 1998.

Indeed, the stats paint a grim picture as the visitors have won just one of their last 12 away league matches (D6 L5), a 3-2 win vs Wigan in October. The Addicks have conceded in each of their last seven on the road, conceding 12 - an average of 1.7 goals against per game.

The Addicks might have 15-goal striker Alfie May back after injury, but Appleton has been without quite a few first-time personnel and the fans were not happy after the Oxford game. Nor his reference to xG in the Wigan game.

KEY OPTA STAT: Port Vale are looking to complete a league double over Charlton for just a second time, also doing so in the 1996-97 season under John Rudge.

Leg 2: Cheltenham Town v Portsmouth, Saturday 15:00: Back Portsmouth

Portsmouth had a poor Christmas considering they went into the festive period as League One's best team yet failed to win in three games, but at least they put the wrong right with a success on New Year's Day against Stevenage.

Steve Evans launched into an epic rant after that game and believed Stevo were hard done by, but Pompey really ought to be adding to their excellent away record this term on Saturday.

Pompey have lost just once on the road and since losing 1-0 against Cheltenham in April 2022, Portsmouth haven't conceded a single goal in three league games against them (W2 D1).

KEY OPTA STAT: No team in the top four tiers of English football has kept more clean sheets on the road than Portsmouth this season (7), with Pompey keeping clean sheets in four of their last five matches away from home.

Leg 3: Fleetwood Town v Derby County, Saturday 12:30, live on Sky: Back Derby

Derby are on Sky for the second successive time on Saturday and will need to be tighter at the back than they were on New Year's Day with the 2-3 loss at home to Peterborough. It was a breathless start with two goals in the first 10 minutes and Posh nicked it with a pair of late goals themselves.

Whilst the Rams are short in price, their away record is actually stronger than the one at Pride Park with eight wins and just 13 conceded on the road.

Fleetwood have been busy this week with a new manager in Charlie Adam and also a forward in Ronan Coughlan, and the 27yo has a good pedigree in Ireland with a record 37 goals in all competitions for the League of Ireland Premier Division side last season.

The Cod Army are bottom and barely score a goal at home - which cost Lee Johnson his job before Adam, and it's hard to fancy the hosts here.

KEY OPTA STAT: Fleetwood Town have won just two of their last 13 League One matches at home (D3 L8), failing to score at all on seven occasions during this run.

League Two

Leg 1: Bradford City v Crawley Town, Saturday 15:00: Back Bradford

Bradford were expecting to be challenging for a play-off spot this term but it's been a poor campaign littered with too many draws and too few goals.

Indeed at home they have scored just 12 all season, but on the plus side they've only conceded 11 and have a solid xA at Valley Parade of 1.00. City have scored the fewest home goals this season in League Two.

After a five-match winless run on the road in League Two between October and November, Crawley have since won two of their last three matches away from home (L1) but on the whole are not easy to predict, which is why they are a big price here at 7/24.50.

KEY OPTA STAT: Crawley Town have only lost one of their 11 games against Bradford City in League Two (W7 D3), a 2-1 defeat in October 2019.

Leg 2: Barrow Town v Tranmere Rovers, Saturday 15:00: Back the draw

Barrow lost some ground over Christmas, which was a surprise as they went into the festive marathon as the form team. However, they drew two of their three matches at home with Stockport and Accrington and failed to win on New Year's Day too.

They are still unbeaten in each of their last 11 home matches in League Two (W5 D6), their longest unbeaten run at home in the Football League since 1968 (19 unbeaten between February and November), but Tranmere have really picked up of late and are dangerous as the outsiders.

With four straight wins into Saturday, they are the form team and hit Notts County for four and Salford for five.

With Barrow drawing against Stockport 2-2, I can see another scoring draw here and Barrow will need to get a point to address their recent run - as they were hammered 4-1 at Wrexham on New Year's Day.

KEY OPTA STAT: After beating Notts County 4-2 on New Years Day, Tranmere Rovers are looking to win each of their first two matches of the calendar year in the Football League for the first time since 2013, when they beat Bury and Crawley Town in League One.

Leg 3: Mansfield Town v Crewe Alexandra, Saturday 15:00: Back Lucas Akins to score

Mansfield were enemies of the column over Christmas when they failed to beat Doncaster in 1-1, and thus foiled at a short price. It's not a surprise to see them at 4/111.36 for Saturday again, as they have been excellent all season.

Thinking the Stags will keep their home run of W6 D5 L0 and F16 A5, I'd rather play on the Anytime Scorer market with Lucas Akins.

He had a quiet Christmas and failed to score in three of the four games, but he's on 9-27 this term and should have a chance or two as Mansfield have plenty of possession and have one of the best xG figures at home of 2.17.

KEY OPTA STAT: Mansfield Town are unbeaten in six League Two matches (W4 D2) and have only lost one of their last 25 league games (W14 D10).

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