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Thursday Football Cheat Sheet: All the best bets in one place

Max Liu
18 May 2023
3:00 min read

Can Moyes take West Ham to a European final?

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Get our experts' best bets for Thursday's football as West Ham try to reach a European final, there are Europa League semi-final, a League One play-off and more...

Hammers backed to fire way into final
Mourinho the master to guide Roma through
Smith to strike as Owls host Posh in L1

AZ Alkmaar v West Ham: Back Premier League outfit to score their way into the final

AZ Alkmaar 2.6813/8 v West Ham 2.8415/8, the Draw 3.613/5
20:00
Live on BT Sport 1

James Eastham says: "Over 2.5 Goals appears likely based on the figures in games involving both of these sides.

Eleven of West Ham's last 20 games in all competitions have had Over 2.5 Goals. The same also applies to 12 of AZ's last 20 games in all competitions.

"In European competition, 10 of AZ's 15 games have had Over 2.5 Goals this season. The same applies to nine of West Ham's 13 European games. On the basis of all the goals-related starts, the price of 2.0 on the game having three or more goals is definitely worth considering.

"These odds on the Over 2.5 Goals market suggest the chances of the game having three or more goals are 50%. The stats suggest the probability of the game having three or more goals is higher than that."

Back Over 2.5 goals on the Betfair Exchange

2.0

Bayer Leverkusen v Roma: Oppose Mourinho at your peril

Leverkusen 2.1411/10 v Roma 4.03/1, the Draw 3.45
20:00
Live on BT Sport 3

Kevin Hatchard says: "This is the kind of situation where Jose Mourinho comes alive as a coach, finding ways to battle or sneak through a two-legged tie. Finding a way to negate the threat of Florian Wirtz, Moussa Diaby and Jeremie Frimpong will have occupied his mind for some time.

Bayer 04 Leverkusen

Roma

VfL Bochum 1848 3 0 Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Bayer 04 Leverkusen 2 2 Borussia Mönchengladbach
Bayer 04 Leverkusen 0 0 Roma
VfB Stuttgart 1 1 Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Roma 1 0 Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Bayer 04 Leverkusen 1 2 1. FC Köln

Fiorentina 2 1 Roma
Roma 2 2 Salernitana
Bayer 04 Leverkusen 0 0 Roma
Bologna 0 0 Roma
Roma 1 0 Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Roma 0 2 Inter Milan

Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs Roma Thursday 18 May, 20:00

Full stats

"In the first leg Bayer were reduced to just one shot on target and a modest xG figure of 1.13 according to our friends at Infogol.

"Roma have recent experience of winning a major European trophy, and despite some poor results on the road in Europe, I think they'll find a way to reach the final.

"You could back Roma to qualify at 1.62, but instead I'll go for Roma +0.5 on the Asian Handicap at 1.88. We only lose if Roma lose inside 90 minutes."

Back Roma +0.5 on the Asian Handicap @

1.88

Thursday Football Tips: Back an 11/2 Bet Builder at Bayer

Paul Higham says: "Mourinho will have players at both ends of the pitch who are prime candidates to give away a couple of fouls each on the night - namely defender Roger Ibanez and forward Tammy Abraham.

"Ibanez was booked in the first leg - his 15th of the season no less - and the 23/10 on him getting another here looks a bit of a gift for a stand alone bet.

"We'll take the 4/5 on 2+ fouls though, as he's managed the last two games and in five of his last six outings. Abraham will be tasked with putting himself about up front, as he did in the first leg with three fouls, so 8/11 on another two here looks fair."

Back Ibanez & Abraham 2+ fouls in Leverkusen v Roma & Diaby 2+ shots on target

11/2

Sevilla v Juventus Tips: Back in-form En-Nesyri in 13/2 Sevilla Bet Builder

Sevilla 2.546/4 v Juventus 3.211/5, the Draw 3.39/4
20:00
Live on BT Sport 2

Dave Tindall says: "Sevilla have won 24 of their last 27 Europa League matches at the Estadio Ramon Sanchez-Pizjuan.

Sevilla

Juventus

Sevilla 1 2 Real Madrid
Elche 1 1 Sevilla
Sevilla 0 0 Real Betis
Sevilla 1 1 Juventus
Real Valladolid 0 3 Sevilla
Juventus 1 1 Sevilla

Empoli 4 1 Juventus
Sevilla 1 1 Juventus
Juventus 2 0 Cremonese
Juventus 1 1 Sevilla
Atalanta 0 2 Juventus
Juventus 2 1 Lecce

Sevilla vs Juventus Thursday 18 May, 20:00

Full stats

"From a Juventus angle it doesn't get any better as the Italians have only won two of their last 17 away games against Spanish sides in the knockout stages of a major European competition.

"The market shows Sevilla at 2.54 to win in 90 minutes and go through to the final while Juventus are 3.2 to take victory in regulation time. The Draw is 3.3.

"I'm definitely on the side of Sevilla but will try and boost those odds by backing them to lead at both half time and full time.

"They came out fast in the first meeting, had 12 shots before the break and led at the interval. Roared on by the home crowd, I'll go for a similar storyline and back Sevilla/Sevilla on the HT/FT market at 4.5."

Back Sevilla/Sevilla Half Time/Full Time

4.5

Basel v Fiorentina: Sparks in Switzerland

Basel 5.49/2 v Fiorentina 1.684/6, the Draw 4.47/2
20:00
Live on BT Sport 4

Kevin Hatchard says: "Fiorentina can be an unpredictable outfit, but they have shone in away games in this competition, winning 4-1 at both Sivasspor and Lech Poznan in the knockout phase.

"With Luka Jovic, Nicolas Gonzalez and former Basel striker Arthur Cabral, boss Vincenzo Italiano has plenty of attacking quality to call upon, and La Viola are the top scorers in the competition.

"I'll use the Sportsbook's Bet Builder here to combine Over 2.5 Goals with Over 8.5 Corners at 2.18. Fiorentina have to go for it, and there were 13 corners in the first leg. Fiorentina's games in Serie A feature an average of 9.2 corners, and they have to push here."

Back Over 2.5 Goals and Over 8.5 Corners @

2.15

Sheff Wed v Peterborough: Back two 7/2 bets at Hillsborough

Sheff Wed 1.728/11 v Peterborough 5.59/2, the Draw 4.1
20:00

Alan Dudman says: "The Under 2.5 Goals is perhaps the most divided here, as the Under 2.5 is 4/11, which is basically telling us the tie is over and the layers do not fancy Wednesday scoring at least four.

Sheffield Wednesday

Peterborough United

Sheffield Wednesday 4 0 Peterborough United
Peterborough United 4 0 Sheffield Wednesday
Sheffield Wednesday 1 0 Derby County
Shrewsbury Town 0 3 Sheffield Wednesday
Sheffield Wednesday 2 1 Exeter City
Bristol Rovers 1 2 Sheffield Wednesday

Sheffield Wednesday 4 0 Peterborough United
Peterborough United 4 0 Sheffield Wednesday
Barnsley 0 2 Peterborough United
Peterborough United 0 0 Bristol Rovers
Peterborough United 0 3 Ipswich Town
Accrington Stanley 1 2 Peterborough United

Sheffield Wednesday vs Peterborough United Thursday 18 May, 20:00

Full stats

"With the head-to-head in mind, the odds-against price of 21/20 is something to consider as a starting point for a Bet Builder. Playing Peterborough with a +2 start for the double pays 2.36. Not huge, but with Posh needing to kill the game, it's a possibility.

"Michael Smith had that gilt-edged chance in the opening 10 minutes at London Road, and to Score First he is 7/2, playing that and the Under 2.5 Goals is a lot healthier at 10/1."

Back Michael Smith to score first

7/2

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