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Sheffield Wednesday v Peterborough: Back two 7/2 bets at Hillsborough

Alan Dudman
18 May 2023
4:00 min read

Sheffield Wednesday manager Darren Moore

Darren Moore's Sheffield Wednesday fell apart in the opening playoff game

Sheffield Wednesday vs Peterborough United
Thu 18 May, 20:00

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Alan Dudman tipped two winners last weekend in the Bolton and Barnsley game at 6/1 and 9/4 and he previews Thursday's Sheffield Wednesday and Peterborough second leg...

Alan tipped 6/1 and 9/4 winners in Bolton/Barnsley tie
Wednesday need a miracle at 10/1 to qualify
Corners bet for Thursday playoff return leg

Sheffield Wednesday

Peterborough United

Sheffield Wednesday 4 0 Peterborough United
Peterborough United 4 0 Sheffield Wednesday
Sheffield Wednesday 1 0 Derby County
Shrewsbury Town 0 3 Sheffield Wednesday
Sheffield Wednesday 2 1 Exeter City
Bristol Rovers 1 2 Sheffield Wednesday

Sheffield Wednesday 4 0 Peterborough United
Peterborough United 4 0 Sheffield Wednesday
Barnsley 0 2 Peterborough United
Peterborough United 0 0 Bristol Rovers
Peterborough United 0 3 Ipswich Town
Accrington Stanley 1 2 Peterborough United

Sheffield Wednesday vs Peterborough United Thursday 18 May, 20:00

Full stats

The bizarre nature of the playoffs in League One was laid bare in the opening leg between these two, as Sheffield Wednesday were about as far removed from the team that accrued 96 points in the regular season as you could get.

Peterborough, so often the Jekyll and Hyde team, saved their best for the biggest stage with a 4-0 win at London Road in the first leg. It went against the form book, went against the points difference and went against all hunches.

Indeed, Posh can at times make Dr Jekyll look a well balanced and consistent individual.

That seismic result has made a massive impact and sea change on the Promotion market, with Wednesday now at an astonishing 23.022/1. Spare a thought for the backers at short prices when they looked the best team in the division for the title - for which they traded very short.

Peterborough are now the de facto favourites at 2.3411/8 in the Promotion market. What fine work from the Posh svengali Darren Ferguson.

Sheffield Wednesday 10/1 to qualify

Playoff football is a strange beast, and Wednesday's 46-game season now means absolutely nothing. They were torn apart in the first-leg and like the fans, one has to question how the players can recover after such a mauling.

They were awful, and it could have been more than four - and that's the worrying aspect. Keith Andrews on Sky described it as an absolute demolition job. Correct Keith.

The saving grace for punters here considering weighing in with the hosts at 4/6 on the Sportsbook is the superb form at Hillsborough. They won 16, drew six and lost just once. They also conceded just 16 and kept a club record 24 clean sheets in the season.

The 10/1 To Qualify price tells you all you need to know.

Peterborough United favourites for promotion

Darren Ferguson 1280 .jpg

Jack Taylor - who netted his tenth of the season in the first leg said proudly: "We deserved everything we got and possibly should have got more. When we're like that, no one in this league can stop us."

Forward Jonson Clarke-Harris collected his 29th of the season, and while I opposed him as I thought he was short enough in the Anytime Scorer market, the captain has been fantastic this season in leading the line, a truly exceptional League One player.

I also backed Michael Smith to score inside 19:59 minutes as a boost to 16s, and Smith really should have scored to net the bet with that one-on-one, but a good save from Will Norris was a pivotal moment in the game according to Ferguson, and one that hit Wednesday for six.

Posh were very much boom and bust in the season away from home - winning 11 and losing 11, drawing just once.

They played through Wednesday's press with ease and really got on the front foot, and it will be interesting to see how Fergie adapts to the second leg on Thursday night.

Match Odds at Hillsborough

The hosts have lost five of their last seven games against Peterborough in all competitions (W2), conceding 4+ goals in three of those defeats, which is not an ideal starting point backing the 4/6 on the Sportsbook.

No side in the EFL play-offs have ever overturned a deficit of 3+ goals from the first leg to progress to the final, and you cannot back Posh to qualify at 1/25.

Unless of course you like 1/25 shots. But Wednesday are unbeaten in their last 23 home games in all competitions (W18 D5) - it's their longest run without defeat at home since a run of 26 between May 1934 and September 1935.

It's a market fraught with danger, as in no way can you entertain backing the Wednesday win on the Exchange at 1.748/11, and likewise, Peterborough at 5.49/2 is a tricky one, as they have such a big advantage, they have effectively "got the job done".

Both games on the head-to-head this term were Under 2.5 Goals. Posh won 2-0 at London Road, Wednesday won 1-0 at Hillsborough.

"We want to go to Hillsborough and try and win the game. That's how we will approach it and that's the attitude that we have got. They are so good at home," said Ferguson.

Bet Builder Options

The Under 2.5 Goals is perhaps the most divided here, as the Under 2.5 is 4/11, which is basically telling us the tie is over and the layers do not fancy Wednesday scoring at least four.

With the head-to-head in mind, the odds-against price of 21/20 is something to consider as a starting point for a Bet Builder. Playing Peterborough with a +2 start for the double pays 2.36. Not huge, but with Posh needing to kill the game, it's a possibility.

Michael Smith had that gilt-edged chance in the opening 10 minutes at London Road, and to Score First he is 7/2, playing that and the Under 2.5 Goals is a lot healthier at 10/1.

Back Michael Smith to score first

7/2

Goalscorer Markets

If Clarke-Harris can get his 30th goal of the campaign, it will be a great achievement. Priced at 13/10 for Anytime Scorer gives us a chance. He also takes penalties.

They way Posh pressed through the line so easily should open up one or two scoring opportunities for the skipper.

Clarke-Harris has scored in two of Peterborough's three meetings with Sheffield Wednesday this season. Overall, if he hits 30 it will be second time in the last three campaigns (33 in 2020-21). What a man.

Jack Taylor opened the scoring in the first leg, his tenth of the season. Taylor is a massive 16/1 for First Goalscorer on the Sportsbook.

One bet I do like is the corners angle. Wednesday had seven corners at Hillsborough in the regular season when winning 1-0, and Posh didn't have a shot on goal, which sways me from the JCH bet.

There were also six corners in total in the playoff first leg, so I like the Under 7.5 Corners at a decent 7/2. If the game is dead in the first 45, it could be a tame one despite the sell-out.

Over to you Posh defence.

Back Under 7/5 corners

7/2

Alan Dudman's League One P & L

2022-23: -6.67pts

(ante post settled)

2017-22: +44.79

*advised to a 0.5pt stake

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