Euro 2024

England Euro Betting Tips: Best bets for Southgate's 26, including a 33/1 shot

Jordan Pickford, England
Pickford key to Euro success

Ste Tudor picks out four great bets based around Southgate's final 26-man Euro 2024 squad...


Betfair are offering customers a chance to earn a free bet each time the side they back to win Euro 2024 (£10 stake) scores a goal during the group stages. Do you opt for a side who is likely to go deep, like France, or, is your faith in a Portugal side who banged in 36 goals in 10 qualifying matches?

Romelu Lukaku is toward the top of the Golden Boot market after finishing the qualifying campaign as the top scorer with 14 goals - that was 64% of Belgium's 22 goals, so could he and the Red Devils be the side to back with the offer in mind?

Perhaps it is an outsider you fancy to surprise us all - like the much fancied Austria, Hungary or Ukraine, and a few goals in their opening three games could well pay you back for your faith in them before the tournament, and hope their big price takes you all the way!

Make sure you opt-in on the Betfair Sportsbook before the opening game and place a £10 bet (or £5 EW) in the Winner market to qualify!


Gareth Southgate's decision to announce his final Euro squad early caught everyone on the hop and the surprises kept coming when the ins and outs were fully processed.

Jack Grealish was cut, a player whose calm retention of possession was sorely missed against Iceland at Wembley. Harry Maguire was out due to injury. Luke Shaw was in despite being injured.

Jarrad Branthwaite was omitted because Euro 2024 is a 'bit early' for him yet Adam Wharton made the grade with 1,542 fewer Premier League minutes under his belt.

But enough of the contradictions because now it's all about the confirmed 26, a squad that undeniably has the potential to end 58 years of hurt.

Even if they don't, these four bets should compensate.

Pickford to the rescue

There is no questioning Jordan Pickford's shot-stopping credentials. The Everton keeper boasted the second-best save percentage in the Premier League last term, a highly dependable 73.33%.

He was one of only three custodians to prevent at least five goals and was part of a Toffees rearguard whose goals against record was inferior only to the top three.

All of which is especially reassuring now that Harry Maguire is officially out of the Euro reckoning.

Of course, there is the defender's reputational nosedive to consider but the much-maligned stopper would have offered tournament experience and authority to the England back-line. Furthermore, his partnership with John Stones has been pivotal to the Three Lions in recent years.

In the games they've played together England have kept clean sheets 58.9% of the time. That dips to 51.1% when only one or neither of them are present.
This concerns because even if England are strong favourites to top Group C their rivals are each a threat going forward.

Slovenia have scored 2+ goals in seven of their last 10. Serbia possess Mitrovic and Vlahovic who were both prolific last term. In their last two friendlies Denmark have racked up 39 attempts on goal combined.


Victim, not villain

Adam Wharton and Kobbie Mainoo both impressed in the friendlies, the former with a 100% passing tally, the latter again looking like an assured 28-year-old, not a kid with just 24 top-flight appearances to his name.

Gut instinct though says it's Conor Gallagher who gets the gig vs Serbia and beyond, with Southgate liking his duel strengths. The Chelsea man can sit in and scrap alongside Declan Rice, or venture forward and offer decent creativity, and crucially he has the energy to consistently do both over the course of 90 minutes.

If that is indeed the case then fouls come to mind. How can it not when Gallagher committed considerably more than any other player in the Premier League last season.

Even that undersells it. The blonde bruiser transgressed more than Jefferson Lerma and John McGinn combined, and neither player is shy of leaving a foot in.

Gallagher to commit 6 or more fouls then in the specials market? Makes sense.

But wait, because other factors come to the fore.

England will have the bulk of the possession in at least two of their three group contests just like they bossed the ball against Bosnia and Iceland. In those games combined they fouled 11 times but were impeded 25 times.

And being the all-action player that he is, Gallagher was often the victim last term too, winning 64 free-kicks all told.

He was fouled twice versus Bosnia and only Ezri Konsa can top that.


Creator-in-chief

England are very well stacked for goal-creators.

Ollie Watkins of course led the way for assists in the Premier League last season with 13, but how many minutes will he get in Germany? The Villa striker can expect a late cameo here and there at most.

watkins.jpg

Close behind was Anthony Gordon and Cole Palmer on 10 apiece, but though both made persuasive cases for starting spots this past week can they realistically dislodge Foden and Saka?

Which neatly brings us to the Arsenal flyer who set up nine goals in 2023/24. Backing Saka in the assists market is a sensible, solid bet.

Don't however overlook Jude Bellingham, even if assists were not his most prominent attribute in La Liga.

On the international stage Saka has three assists in his last 18 outings. Bellingham meanwhile has three in his last four for England.

Across the last five Euros the player with the most assists has posted threes and fours and if the future Ballon d'Or winner has a stand-out tournament - as hoped for - that's well within his capabilities.


Goals by the dozen

It feels counter-intuitive to back the Three Lions to out-score their rivals in Germany just 24 hours after managing only one shot on target against a team ranked 72 in the world.

Should the Iceland loss be viewed as an anomaly however the wealth of firepower within the England squad leads us in that direction.
Between them, England's attacking roster averaged 25 league goal involvements in 2023/24. That is seriously, excitingly impressive. By comparison, France's forwards averaged 17.5 goal involvements.

Moreover, if England are fancied to go deep in the competition - and every metric bar an injury-hit defence says they probably will - then backing them to bag the most goals is a great accompanying bet.

The last four teams to out-fire their peers at the Euros were all winners or finalists.


Read Mark O'Haire's team by team Euro guide here


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