UEFA Champions League

Jones Knows Notebook: Back Jadon Sancho to be fouled 2+ times at 100/30 vs PSG

PSG boss Luis Enrique
PSG boss Luis Enrique can't allow Jadon Sancho to dominate again

Sky Sports' betting expert Lewis Jones - aka 'Jones Knows' - is back with his weekly Notebook column and has spotted some value to exploit surrounding PSG's approach to stopping Jadon Sancho in Wednesday's Champions League semi-final...

PSG's Sancho approach has to change

Jadon Sancho made 13 successful dribbles in the first leg of Borussia Dortmund's Champions League semi-final with PSG.

The on-loan Manchester United got rave reviews for that performance, where he could've had a hat-trick of assists - and rightly so - but I'd rather look it from the other side of the coin.

From a defensive perspective, PSG should be embarrassed by what Sancho was able to do to them. I just couldn't believe how tame Luis Enrique's side played in one-on-one duels up against him.

Have they not seen Sancho play before? There is a tactic to stop him. Play aggressively.

Sancho is all about rhythm and confidence - once he's got a bit of arrogance to his game he's a very dangerous footballer. You could see him grow and puff his chest out further after every successful piece of play he conjured up. But Sancho isn't Lionel Messi. This player can be silenced - as we saw week-after-week in the Premier League.

On countless occasions at Manchester United where the opposition full-back played aggressively against him early in the game, got in his face, made a foul or a strong challenge, he'd lose a bit of heart and any momentum to his game was then hard for him to find.

I know this from first-hand experience playing football, not quite at Champions League level though - I must add. Having played as a winger, if the opposition full-back crashed into me early, I never felt comfortable after that. And it's probably why that mentality led me to career watching football for a living instead of playing it.

Sancho is a gifted player but he's not someone that possesses that type of monster mentality.

And surely PSG will change their approach in Wednesday's second leg. There will be a target on Sancho's back. He won't be given the freedom to play - one or even two PSG will be tasked with stopping him at source.

With that in mind, I think there is some huge value to be snapped up surrounding Sancho's 'to be fouled prices' on the Betfair Sportsbook with PSG likely to adapt a more front-foot, aggressive approach to stop him dictating attacks in front of their home fans.

For a winger, Sancho's foul won data is actually surprisingly low, drawing just two fouls in his last 10 starts since returning to Dortmund - he's not exactly Jack Grealish like.

But whether it's PSG's Nuno Mendes who played in the first leg or someone else, I think they'll be getting much tighter to Sancho and that could lead to fouls. And due to Sancho's low overall fouls drawn numbers, we can play at some great prices here.

Sancho to be fouled once or more is 4/61.67 with the Sportsbook, indicating an implied probability of 60 per cent. In a game of this make-or-break nature with everything on the line, I've got that price being closer to 1/31.33 and the probability floating around the 75 per cent mark.

Of course, those prices aren't for everybody and rightly so. But usually if there's value in the line, there's value in the higher lines and that's the case here. Sancho to be fouled two or more times is a 100/304.30 shot and rates as a value play - as does the 11/112.00 for Sancho to be fouled three or more times.

Back Jadon Sancho to be fouled at least twice vs PSG @ 100/304.30

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