English Premier League

Premier League Final Day Opta Stats: Back 9/2 assist tip and 12/1 Bet Builder

Aston Villa captain Ollie Watkins
Watkins (13) has three more assists than any other player

For one final time this Premier League season, Alexander Boyes brings us his best bets for each of Sunday's 10 games, using a combination of trends, Opta stats, and betting odds...

  • 4/51.80 Saka bet looks a tremendous find

  • Pascal Gross always scores against Man Utd

  • 7/24.50 Bournemouth card looks a great bet

  • Should the player with the most assists be 9/25.50 for another?

  • KDB x Haaland pays us 2/13.00

Betfair Premier League Superboost

In a weekend where the title is heading to either Manchester or North London, both Pep Guardiola's and Mikel Arteta's side must turn up on Sunday, just incase the other does win. City know the title is theirs with a win, whilst Arsenal are relying on West Ham to do them a favour and any dropped points from City means the Gunners can win the title with a win over Everton.

Betfair have decided to get involved in the title race, and offer a Superboost across both title defining matches, with both the West Ham and Everton GK each to make 3+ saves, now priced at 1/12.00 (was [1/4!]).

Interestingly, only Man Utd's goalkeeper has a higher save ratio than Everton's (74%) and West Ham's (73%), with Jordan Pickford (3.2) and Alphone Areola (4.3) averaging over the 3+ barrier in their Premier League games this season.

Both 'keepers are set to be very busy on Sunday, as not only do they come up against sides who need to win, they come up against sides who are in red hot form in front of goal.

Man City are averaging 7.6 shots on target per home game in 2024, firing 36 on target across their last three games. They also lead the league overall this season with 7.2 per game.

Arsenal meanwhile, have managed 3+ shots on target in all eight of their home games in 2024, averaging 7.1 per game since the turn of the year.

Expect Pickford and Areola to be in the firing line on Sunday.

Arsenal v Everton

Boom Saka-laka

The Opta Stat:

"Bukayo Saka wins 2.1 fouls per 90 in the Premier League this season, with only four players winning more overall fouls in the league than Saka (70) in 2023-24. Indeed, Saka also committees 1.2 fouls per 90 in the top-flight this season. Across his last 10 matches in all competitions, Saka has either won (26) or committed (12) fouls, hitting 4+ foul involvements in six of those (fouls won + fouls committed."

The Betfair Bet:

Back Bukayo Saka to have 4 or more foul involvements @ 4/51.80

Brentford v Newcastle United

Magpies throwing it back

The Opta Stat:

"Newcastle United have scored 80 Premier League goals this season, their most ever in a league campaign with a maximum of 38 matches. They have also conceded 60 goals, the first time a team has scored 80+ and conceded 60+ in a top-flight campaign with a maximum of 20 teams since 1914-15, when both Blackburn (F83 A61) and Sunderland (F81 A72) did so."

The Betfair Bet:

Back both teams to score two or more goals @ 11/53.20

Brighton & Hove Albion v Manchester United

Pascal's favourites come to town

Pascal Groß Brighton.jpg

The Opta Stat:

"Brighton's Pascal Groß has scored more Premier League goals against Manchester United than he has vs any other side (7). He's scored in his last three against them in the competition, with only Jimmy Floyd Hasselbaink (5), Mohamed Salah (5) and Sergio Agüero (4) netting in more consecutive appearances against the Red Devils."

The Betfair Bet:

Back Pascal Gross to score anytime @ 7/24.50

Burnley v Nottingham Forest

Forest to end Burnley's season

The Opta Stat:

"Burnley have conceded at least once in each of their last 19 Premier League games - they last had a longer run without a league clean sheet between March and September 2011 (20). On the other hand, Nottingham Forest came from behind to beat already relegated Sheffield United in their last Premier League away match. They've not won consecutive top-flight away games since a run of four in March/April 1995, three of which were against sides who were relegated that season."

The Betfair Bet:

Back Forest to win & BTTS @ 11/43.75

Chelsea v Bournemouth

Back Senesi to see red (or yellow)

The Opta Stat:

"Marcos Senesi has been booked 12 times in the Premier League this season, the joint most by a Bournemouth player in a single campaign along with Jefferson Lerma in 2018-19. No South American player has ever been booked 13 times in one season."

The Betfair Bet:

Back Marco Senesi to be carded @ 7/24.50

Crystal Palace v Aston Villa

Should Watkins really be 9/2 for one more?

The Opta Stat:

"Ollie Watkins has more assists than any other Premier League player this season (13). Only Ashley Young (14 in 2007-08) has ever provided more in a single Premier League campaign for Aston Villa."

The Betfair Bet:

Back Ollie Watkins to assist anytime @ 9/25.50

Liverpool v Wolverhampton Wanderers

Klopp x Salah end on a high

Jurgen Klopp Training.jpg

The Opta Stat:

"This will be Jürgen Klopp's 334th and final Premier League match in charge of Liverpool. He won his final league game in charge of both FSV Mainz 05 (May 2008) and Borussia Dortmund (May 2015), though none of Liverpool's last six managers have won their final league game in charge of the club (D3 L3). Indeed, Mo Salah is set to make his 250th Premier League appearance for Liverpool in this match. The Egyptian already has the second-highest combined goals and assists tally by any player in their first 250 appearances for a single club in the competition (223 - 155 goals, 68 assists), behind only Thierry Henry for Arsenal (243 - 171 goals, 72 assists)."

The Betfair Bet:

Back Mohamed Salah to both score and assist @ 5/23.50

Luton Town v Fulham

Double the assists

The Opta Stat:

"No player has created more chances from set play this season than Luton's Alfie Doughty (42), while only James Ward-Prowse (6) has more such assists than the Hatters full-back (5). For Fulham, Andreas Pereira has created 84 chances in the Premier League this season, the most on record (since 2003-04) for a Fulham player in a single campaign. He also has seven assists this term, with Simon Davies the last player with more for the Cottagers (8 in 2007-08)."

The Betfair Bet:

Back both Andreas Pereira and Alfie Doughty to assist @ 12/113.00

Manchester City v West Ham United

2/1 is a price whenever City play

The Opta Stat:

"Man City's Kevin De Bruyne has six assists in Premier League final games - it's the most of any current player, with only Nolberto Solano providing more in the competition's history (7). De Bruyne's assist for Haaland against Spurs on Tuesday took him to 112 in the Premier League, with only Ryan Giggs having more in the history of the competition (162)."

The Betfair Bet:

Back Erling Haaland to score a goal assisted by KDB @ 2/13.00

Sheffield United v Tottenham Hotspur

Ange to show Spurs' serious side

The Opta Stat:

"Sheffield United have conceded 101 Premier League goals this season, the outright most in a single campaign. In a top-flight season with a maximum of 20 teams, only Leicester in 1908-09 (102) and Darwen in 1891-92 (112) have shipped more. Indeed, the Blades have a goal difference of -66 so far this season - defeat by four goals here will see them finish the campaign with the worst goal difference in Premier League history (currently -69 by Derby County in 2007-08)."

The Betfair Bet:

Back Spurs (-3) @ 9/25.50

Opta Stats P/L 2023-24 -

(Single Recommended bet of the week)

Stake: 30pts
Return: 33.85
P/L: +3.85
ROI: +12.8%

(Overall Column)

Stake: 315pts
Return: 310.4
P/L: -4.6
ROI: -1.5%

Now read the best of our Final Day betting previews here!

Football... Only Bettor - Listen to your best bets here!

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