English Premier League

Brighton vs Manchester United: Get Albion onside at almost 2/1

Roberto De Zerbi - Brighton
Brighton remain difficult to beat at The Amex

Brighton and Manchester United conclude their Premier League campaigns with a meeting at The Amex. Betfair writer Mark O'Haire is keeping the Seagulls onside on Sunday...

Betfair Premier League Superboost

In a weekend where the title is heading to either Manchester or North London, both Pep Guardiola's and Mikel Arteta's side must turn up on Sunday, just incase the other does win. City know the title is theirs with a win, whilst Arsenal are relying on West Ham to do them a favour and any dropped points from City means the Gunners can win the title with a win over Everton.

Betfair have decided to get involved in the title race, and offer a Superboost across both title defining matches, with both the West Ham and Everton GK each to make 3+ saves, now priced at 1/12.00 (was [1/4!]).

Interestingly, only Man Utd's goalkeeper has a higher save ratio than Everton's (74%) and West Ham's (73%), with Jordan Pickford (3.2) and Alphone Areola (4.3) averaging over the 3+ barrier in their Premier League games this season.

Both 'keepers are set to be very busy on Sunday, as not only do they come up against sides who need to win, they come up against sides who are in red hot form in front of goal.

Man City are averaging 7.6 shots on target per home game in 2024, firing 36 on target across their last three games. They also lead the league overall this season with 7.2 per game.

Arsenal meanwhile, have managed 3+ shots on target in all eight of their home games in 2024, averaging 7.1 per game since the turn of the year.

Expect Pickford and Areola to be in the firing line on Sunday.

Brighton v Manchester United
Sunday, 16:00

Both teams struggling for wins

Brighton 2.226/5 have recorded just three wins since the start of March and have now tasted victory in just one of their past nine matches after suffering a 2-1 home reverse to in-form Chelsea in midweek. But head coach Roberto De Zerbi praised his injury-hit side for their performance despite Albion giving away two preventable goals at The Amex.

With 10 minutes remaining against Chelsea, a point seemed out of the question. Yet the Seagulls finished strongly with Simon Adingra striking the inside of the post moments before Danny Welbeck's late consolation. Things may have been very different if the hosts had taken their chances before Chelsea's second, whilst a strong penalty shout was waved away.

De Zerbi said, "We didn't play well in the first 20 minutes but after that we played a good game. We conceded two bad goals, but it was a clear penalty on [Simon] Adingra. We lost against a top team with great players but we showed we can still compete and play well."

Albion will need to check on Lewis Dunk's fitness ahead of Sunday after the Brighton skipper went off injured at half-time with a knee problem. Meanwhile, the hosts are hoping to have Joel Veltman available again.

Match Preview

Brighton - Man Utd
  1. L
  2. L
  3. D
  4. W
  5. L
  6. L
Man Utd
  1. W
  2. W
  3. L
  4. L
  5. D
  6. W
Full Stats Powered by Opta

Rasmus Hojlund broke his 10-game scoring drought to seal a thrilling 3-2 victory for Manchester United 3.1085/40 against Newcastle at Old Trafford on Wednesday night. Anything other than top honours for Erik ten Hag's side would have condemned the Red Devils to their lowest league finish in 34 years but FA Cup finalists bagged just a third success in 12.

Youngsters Kobbie Mainoo and Amad Diallo impressed for United yet the hosts still lacked control throughout the contest, conceding 21 shots, six Big Chances and losing the Expected Goals (xG) battle 1.45 - 2.37. Newcastle also hit the woodwork on two occasions, however the return of Lisandro Martinez off the bench has given ten Hag a much-needed boost.

Harry Maguire and Luke Shaw look unlikely to feature on the south coast, but Raphael Varane and Victor Lindelof may also return to the squad to give Man Utd extra options at the back, potentially breaking-up the makeshift centre-back partnership of Casemiro and Jonny Evans ahead of the weekend.

Base your Bet Builder around Brighton

Brighton's midweek defeat to Chelsea was only their second home reverse against sides outside of the top-two this season in the Premier League. The Seagulls have remained relatively solid opposition at The Amex and rank inside the top-half of the table when viewing home Expected Points (xP) and home Expected Goals (xG) data.

Of course, Albion have appeared toothless at times in 2024, though a home clash against a ramshackle Man Utd rearguard should give Roberto De Zerbi's outfit a decent shot at landing the points. The hosts are aiming for a fifth successive win over the Red Devils, whilst Brighton have also bagged top honours in four of their last six home games with United.

With that in-mind, I'm happy to have an interest in Brighton Double Chance and Brighton Over 6.5 Corners at almost 2/13.00 via the Bet Builder. Man Utd are W1-D2-L7 on their travels to teams in 12th and above, with the visitors also allowing a minimum of seven corners in 12 of their last 15 top-flight tussles (conceding an average of 8.87 per-game during that sample).

Brighton boast a 7.06 corners per-game average at The Amex this season so asking the Seagulls to follow suit should be well within their range, especially with the visitors potentially distracted by their FA Cup final date at Wembley next weekend.

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