English Premier League

Arsenal v Everton: Back 15/2 Bet Builder with Gunners fouls to the fore

Arsenal boss Mikel Arteta
Eyes on the prize? Arsenal boss Mikel Arteta

Sky Sports' betting expert Lewis Jones - aka 'Jones Knows' - takes a look at what bets punters should be attacking as Arsenal try to create some final day drama in the Premier League title race...

Betfair Premier League Superboost

In a weekend where the title is heading to either Manchester or North London, both Pep Guardiola's and Mikel Arteta's side must turn up on Sunday, just incase the other does win. City know the title is theirs with a win, whilst Arsenal are relying on West Ham to do them a favour and any dropped points from City means the Gunners can win the title with a win over Everton.

Betfair have decided to get involved in the title race, and offer a Superboost across both title defining matches, with both the West Ham and Everton GK each to make 3+ saves, now priced at 1/12.00 (was [1/4!]).

Interestingly, only Man Utd's goalkeeper has a higher save ratio than Everton's (74%) and West Ham's (73%), with Jordan Pickford (3.2) and Alphone Areola (4.3) averaging over the 3+ barrier in their Premier League games this season.

Both 'keepers are set to be very busy on Sunday, as not only do they come up against sides who need to win, they come up against sides who are in red hot form in front of goal.

Man City are averaging 7.6 shots on target per home game in 2024, firing 36 on target across their last three games. They also lead the league overall this season with 7.2 per game.

Arsenal meanwhile, have managed 3+ shots on target in all eight of their home games in 2024, averaging 7.1 per game since the turn of the year.

Expect Pickford and Areola to be in the firing line on Sunday.

Arsenal v Everton
Sunday 19 May, 16:00 kick-off
Live on TNT Sports

Anyone know who the last team were to overturn a top-flight title race on the final day? Yes, it was Arsenal in 1989 when they beat leaders Liverpool 2-0.

Sorry Arsenal fans, it's the hope that kills you.

Arsenal are 10.09/1 on the Betfair Exchange to win the Premier League and they require a huge favour from West Ham at Man City. It looks a big ask.

Everton's inability to find the net on a consistent basis this season - only Sheffield United have scored fewer goals than them (39) - means Arsenal should get their job quite comfortably. But they've run into a juggernaut of a football team in Man City. A gallant second place awaits.

Swim against goal rush and back unders

Everton have been the party poopers at this extravaganza of goals this season. Whilst the likes of Tottenham, Aston Villa, Luton and Bournemouth like to fight fire with fire and play high risk-reward football, Everton have concentrated on keeping their sheets clean.

It's provided the backbone of their successful survival bid. No matter the opposition, the Toffees manage to drag the goal expectancy down and have been a real under goals backers pal in tough times this season.

That stout defence, added to misfiring strikers, have seen their total match goals average stand at 2.38 - it's the lowest in the Premier League by some way at 0.49 as they are the only team to average under that key 2.5 goals line.

No team have been involved in more under 2.5 goals games this season than Everton with 59% of their matches going against the grain of goals and delivering two or fewer goals, including seven of their last eight fixtures.

So, despite the well documented increase in the average goal totals on the final day, I simply can't ignore an under goal bet here at the prices. Everton can drag this game down a low scoring pathway. The 2/13.00 on offer from the Betfair Sportsbook for under 2.5 goals is simply too chunky to pass up.

Calvert-Lewin can lure Arsenal duo in

Arsenal will need to devise a plan to make sure Dominic Calvert-Lewin doesn't run them ragged. The Everton striker's return to his best form has coincided with this fantastic run of four wins in five games. He's been unplayable in recent weeks - so Gabriel and William Saliba will need to be on their game. It should be a very watchable and intense battle. And fouls look on the cards.

Calvert-Lewin has won 16 fouls in his last six starts - it equates exactly to 2.95 fouls per 90 since March 30 and only three players are working at a higher foul won ratio in the Premier League.

Saliba and Gabriel's fouls committed numbers have spiked in Arsenal's run-in as the pressure has increased, making 33 fouls between them in their last 11 games. They are a devastating defensive duo but such is Arsenal's tactic of squeezing the play, they are asked to defend aggressively and can be left exposed. The high foul count makes sense.

Both are overpriced to make a foul when considering their foul drawing, dangerous opponent with Gabriel available at 8/131.61 and Saliba especially appealing at 5/61.84. If we combine those two bets in the Bet Builder we can back both to make at least one foul at 7/42.75 - a bet which has landed in five of their last six games at home.

If we chuck the under 2.5 goal selection into the mix, it means we have a tasty 15/28.50 long-shot that looks dripping with value.

Now read more of Lewis Jones' Premier League final day tips!

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