English Premier League

Jones Knows Notebook: Back 10/1 & 20/1 Over 7.5 goals wagers on final day

Spurs boss Ange Postecoglou
Spurs boss Ange Postecoglou

Sky Sports' betting expert Lewis Jones - aka 'Jones Knows' - is back with his weekly Notebook column and looks ahead to the final day of the Premier League season which looks set to be a goal bonanza...

14/1 for EVERY PL game to go over 2.5 goals

You can always guarantee goals on the final day of a Premier League season. And the goals are flowing like we've never seen before this season.

This means we could be in a for a proper bonanza on Sunday.

It is a shame the markets are aware of the likelihood of goals, goals, goals but as always, if you box clever, there are ways of jumping onto a couple of nice bets.

Coffee went spewing everywhere when I checked the lines for Sunday. The over 2.5 lines across the 10 Premier League games on Sunday are astonishing. Every game is shorter than 4/7 to see the over 2.5 goal line win. If you fancy all 10 games to go over the 2.5 line, which somehow hasn't happened yet this season, then you can get 14/115.00 for your money.

That is short to my maths but the layers are in no mood to take any chances on a season that has been extraordinary for goal averages. I'm willing to chance it lands. The current strike rate for over 2.5 goals landing this season across all matches is working at 64.2%.

This season has already broken the record for most goals in a 38-game Premier League season with 1,193 being scored (at the time of writing on Monday). The previous record was 1,084 last season.

That equates to a per game average of 3.26 goals per game this season, hammering the previous best set last season at 2.85. A 0.4 spike over such a large sample size of games explains just why the markets are so defensive on games going over that 2.5 line. We're living in an age where the traditional 2.5 goals line is now 3.5 due to the projected goals that the algorithms are spitting out.

Don't fear the over 7.5 goal lines - one may land

What is the reason for this goal spike then? Clubs willing to appoint attack-minded, risk-reward managers like Ange Postecoglou and Roberto De Zerbi has certainly helped the goal glut, even though Brighton have fallen short in that regard since the turn of the year. But I think the answer is simple: injury time.

This season has seen an average of 11.36 minutes added on per game, over three minutes per game more than last season and it's triggered a frenzy of late turnarounds. I've lost count how many times this season a bet of mine has either suffered an agonizing bad beat in the final stages or copped a return from nowhere due to stoppage time goals.

There have been 143 goals in injury time this season, there were just 84 in the entirety of last season.

I'm fully expecting Sunday to follow the season trend of being a crazy, crazy day for goals but what should be the betting strategy? In the last 10 Premier League final days, the goal-per-game ratio has always sailed above the season average for goals per matchday on the final day. Over those 10 years, the average goal count per matchday increases 0.6 per match from the overall average total goal count per match.

So if using that theory here, I'd expect the average goals per game ratio of these upcoming 10 Premier League fixtures to be trending somewhere around the 3.8 mark.

Teams are more likely to play with a bit more freedom in a no-pressure environment. It's attack-minded football to the fore. The goal spike makes sense.

This means being aggressive with goal lines in certain games where there is absolutely nothing on the line looks the way to give you a best chance of making profit across the card.

Final day games have the tendency to into overdrive in terms of a scoreline. Remember Crystal Palace 5-3 Bournemouth in 2019? Or Tottenham 5-4 Leicester in 2018? How about Hull City 1-7 Tottenham in 2017? And there was relegated Southampton drawing 4-4 Liverpool last season.

These sets of results make the over 7.5 goals line not as unreachable as the odds suggest and I've pinpointed two matches to play that longshot in.

Luton vs Fulham is 20/121.00 for the over 7.5 goal line to bag where there is little on the line and Luton will play their usual open attacking style whilst the 10/111.00 on Sheffield United vs Tottenham to go over the same line certainly makes some appeal.

The Blades have lost six games by five or more goals this season and have conceded 101 goals across the campaign - both are Premier League records. They just may bow out with another hammering.

Those are my chosen two games but I'd encourage punters to be brave and bold across all the fixtures when assessing the goal lines this weekend. Don't fear attacking the over 5.5 and over 6.5 lines when plotting your strategies.

Now read more Premier League previews and tips here.

Follow Lewis Jones' Premier League tips and predictions across Sky Sports each week.

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