Champions League Semi-Final Tipsheet: Another Romantada?

James Horncastle
30 April 2018

Another Romantada - can Roma produce another incredible turnaround against Liverpool on Wednesday

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Bayern and Roma are up against it if they want to reach the Champions League final in Kiev, as James Horncastle explains...

“We don’t need a miracle,” says Di Francesco

Depleted Bayern on the brink

Real Madrid v Bayern Munich
Tuesday, 19:45 GMT
Live on BT Sport

Bayern have now lost six consecutive games to Real Madrid. But if the record is one-sided, the games have not been.

Last year, the Germans took the lead at the Bernabeu and took a game, mired in refereeing controversy, to extra-time only to lose and suffer elimination. Last week Bayern were probably the better side and should have had more than a goal to shout about at the end of the first half. But the loss of Arjen Robben and Jerome Boateng to injury then Javi Martinez disrupted Jupp Heynckes' plans, adding to an already long casualty list. Madrid's winner, scored by Marcos Asensio, originated from a mistake made by Rafinha. The Brazilian was only in the side because of an injury to David Alaba.

Stretched to the limit, it's hard to see Bayern mounting a comeback in Spain. Juventus laid bare Madrid's vulnerabilities in the last round, almost taking the tie to extra-time. A key difference though is that Sergio Ramos was suspended that night and Massimiliano Allegri recovered players. Heynckes by contrast has lost them.

Madrid should also have learned from that experience. Tuesday's second leg falls on the 17th anniversary of Bayern's last win at the Bernabeu. Giovane Elber made the difference that night. But unlike in 2001 a 1-0 win would not be enough this time around. Not after Marcelo and Asensio's away goals in Munich.

It's hard to imagine Madrid being as complacent as they were in the quarter-final second leg against Juventus. The margin for error is smaller and that should keep Zinedine Zidane's players on their toes. Take Madrid to win @ 2.1211/10.

Red alert in Rome

Roma v Liverpool
Wednesday, 19:45 GMT
Live on BT Sport

If you don't believe in this team, don't come to the Olimpico. Stay at home. Eusebio di Francesco's message is loud and clear. Roma find themselves in exactly the same position as in the quarter-finals. A 3-0 win, like the one the Giallorossi improbably inflicted on Barcelona, is the order of the day.

The fact Roma have done it before and so recently against elite opposition gives di Francesco hope. "We don't need a miracle," he says.

But the feedback from the game at Anfield is different to the sort Roma derived after the game at the Camp Nou. Roma felt hard done by in Catalunya. Two of Barcelona's four goals were own-goals. Edin Dzeko and Lorenzo Pellegrini both had legitimate penalty claims turned down. The fear factor waned. Roma returned to Italy convinced they could beat Barça.

It's hard to imagine the Wolves felt that way as they left England last week. OK, Kevin Strootman was fouled in the build-up to Liverpool's first goal. Mohamed Salah was offside for the third, and the fifth arrived seconds after Di Francesco's double substitution and formation change caused confusion in Roma's ranks. The way the Italians finished the game offers encouragement but it coincided with Salah going off, Liverpool tiring and complacency setting in.

The Reds outclassed them and had plenty of other chances to score in a relentless spell between the 25th and 68th minute. Roma are priced @ 10.519/2 to repeat the heroics of the Barcelona game and qualify for the final. No one gave them a chance on that occasion only for the Giallorossi to produce the most memorable night in the Champions League this season.

Roma are still yet to concede at the Olimpico in this competition and will need to keep that record intact if they are to upset the odds once again. Confidence in Liverpool winning the trophy for a sixth time has understandably increased in the last week. Real Madrid are favourites but only just with Jurgen Klopp's side trading @ 2.546/4.

First though the Reds have got to get the job done in the Eternal City. The Champions League top scorers have struck in every road game in the competition this season and have not lost away from Anfield. Another Liverpool win is going for 2.767/4 on the Exchange.