Wednesday's Champions League Tips: Back goals in Toon's trip to Baku & 9/5 Bayer to avenge Athens loss

• After a slow start back goals in Newcastle's trip to Baku

• Back Bayer to avenge recent defeat in Athens

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Qarabag v Newcastle
Wednesday 18 February, 17:45 kick-off
Live on Discovery+ & TNT Sports 1

Qarabag held Chelsea to a 2-2 draw in Baku so although they're 7/18.00 outsiders they shouldn't be written off entirely, especially with Newcastle making a 2500-mile journey out to Azerbaijan just a few days after their FA Cup tie at Aston Villa. That was a second away win in a week but in Europe they've still won just twice in 15 on the road. Newcastle are still big 4/111.36 favourites though.

Given the journey time and some injuries Eddie Howe is dealing with, the 4/15.00 on the draw could be a value bet, with the supporting stats pointing to goals - Qarabag scoring 2+ goals in six straight European home games while Newcastle have just two clean sheets in 16 Champions League aways. Plus there's been 4.25 goals per game in Qarabag's UCL campaign this year.

So both teams to score seems almost certain, but we'll add in a half-time draw to take into account a long journey and poor away run causing a cautious approach from the visitors against a team that's held their own on home soil.

Bodo/Glimt v Inter Milan
Wednesday 18 February, 20:00 kick-off
Live on TNT Sports 1 & Discovery+

Talk about a farytale, Bodo beating Man City at home then Atletico away to bag a play-off spot was an unreal finish, and now they host Italian giants Inter Milan as 18/54.60 underdogs but a fresh side, without a game since that one in Madrid at the end of January, and with belief they can cause anyone problems at home in the Arctic Circle.

Seven of Bodo's eight group games saw both teams score, and there's been goals in Inter's recent games, but they kept three clean sheets in four away games in the competition and perhaps Bodo won't be at their sharpest after three weeks off so I actually fancy a thoroughiy professional Italian job here even in the frigid conditions.

Olympiakos v Bayer Leverkusen
Wednesday 18 February, 20:00 kick-off
Live on Discovery+ & TNT Sports 4

Olympiakos won their last three games to qualify, including a 2-0 win at home against Leverkusen last month, and they're slight favourites to double that up at 8/52.60 with the Germans at 9/52.80 after some head scratching form - they beat Man City and Benfica without conceding but drew at Copenhagen and lost in Athens in their two easier away ties.

So you're never quite sure what you'll get from Bayer and the home fans will be bang up for this one, making this an extremely tough one to call, but Leverkusen were pretty unlucky on their last trip here, as they dominated the ball but failed to score from 17 shots, six on target and five big chances - Olympiakos had two shots on target and two goals. 

The draw is attractive at 23/103.30 but a performance anything like the one at the Etihad should get the job done.

Club Brugge v Atletico Madrid
Wednesday 18 February, 20:00 kick-off
Live on Discovery+ & TNT Sports 3

Diego Simeone will still be fuming now with Atletico getting just a point from their last two games to miss out on the top eight, while Brugge by contrast won their last two to finish 19th. And at home the Belgians beat Monaco and Marseille and drew with Barcelona so they're no mugs and live outsiders at 3/14.00.

Surprisingly Atleti have gone three La Liga games without a goal, and that could be an issue against a free-scoring Brugge side who stuck three past Barca  and Marseille here. But it's hard to back against a Simeone team in Europe so instead this one looks a safer bet to go for goals. Both sides averaged four goals a game in their UCL matches while three of Madrid's four away games eclipsed 3.5 goals. 

Now read the rest of our Champions League betting previews & tips