The Betfair Contrarian: Why the New Orleans Saints will win the Superbowl

Super Bowl / The Betfair Contrarian / 30 January 2010 / Leave a comment

New Orleans know they will have to keep Peyton Manning quiet if they're to win this one

The Betfair Contrarian is at it again! This time he's finding numerous reasons as to why Superbowl outsiders the New Orleans Saints will get the better of the Indianapolis Colts.

"Quarterbacks so often make the difference at the Super Bowl, with the Most Valuable Player award going to the winning team’s quarterback on 22 occasions. Payton Manning was integral to Indianapolis 2007 victory and will be required to play a starring role again, but the Saints will be ready to make life hard for him."

The Contrarian's new positive outlook has him predicting a fairytale triumph for New Orleans as they make their Super Bowl bow after 43 years of mediocrity. First time finalists haven't fared too well in recent years, but few have waited so long or had to overcome as much adversity for their opportunity; just four years ago they lost their Louisiana Superdome home for a season to allow refurbishment following Hurricane Katrina. Here's why you should back the Saints to march on to long-awaited glory at [2.9] by beating 2007 winners the Indianapolis Colts...

History, baby!

The Saints are the least successful franchise in the NFC South division, with just one play-off appearance in the last seven seasons. That has made their progress this season even more spectacular, with them setting a divisional record for the best ever regular season, with 13 wins from 16. The previous standard bearers were the Malcolm Glazer-owned Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who had a record of 12-4 in 2002-03, and they went on to win the Superbowl by the joint-largest margin of victory in the last 16 years, 48-21 against the Oakland Raiders.

It's good to start as outsiders

In the closing weeks of the regular season, the Saints and Colts both went out of their way to shed their perfect records, perhaps wary of the humiliating loss the New England Patriots suffered two years ago after reaching the Superbowl unbeaten. The Saints won their first 13 games before flopping in their final three, while the Colts went one better with 14 straight wins before rolling over in their last two. In three of the last four years, the team with the inferior regular season record has gone on to win the Super Bowl.

The Colts are nothing special head-to-head with the Saints

The teams have clashed ten times before and are inseparable on five wins apiece. Given that the Colts are traditionally one of the NFL's stronger outfits, reaching the play-offs on 22 previous occasions, including nine of the last ten years (whereas Saints fans have been known to wear paper bags over their heads to hide their embarrassment) you'd have expected the Colts to have a much better record.

New Orleans can keep Manning quiet

Quarterbacks so often make the difference at the Superbowl, with the Most Valuable Player award going to the winning team's quarterback on 22 occasions. Payton Manning was integral to Indianapolis 2007 victory and will be required to play a starring role again, but the Saints will be ready to make life hard for him. In their two play-off games to reach the Super Bowl, New Orleans beat the Arizona Cardinals and Minnesota Vikings, whose quarterbacks Kurt Warner and Brett Favre were, alongside Manning, the three best performing passers in the play-offs. Both endured miserable evenings at the hands of the Saints, with 40-year-old Favre taking such a pounding that he is likely to retire and stay retired for a change.

The Saints' offence will be hard to stop

While it was the tough defence that stole the headlines in the play-offs, New Orleans' offence were the stars of the regular season, ranking as the best across both the AFC and NFC. The team with the superior offence doesn't always win the Superbowl, as the Patriots discovered two years ago when stunned by the New York Giants, but the difference there was that the Giants had one of the best defences, whereas Indianapolis defence finished the regular season ranked an ordinary 18th out of 32.

Tags: american football betting, Indianapolis Colts, Peyton Manning, Superbowl bets, Superbowl match