Super Bowl Betting: Look for the special bets as Steelers contain Cardinals

Super Bowl / Andy Richmond / 30 January 2009 / Leave a Comment

From the straightforward to the eclectic, betting on Superbowl XLIII springs to life this week with a plethora of markets available on Betfair.com. Andy Richmond recommends the best sepcial bets.

Fifty markets are already available on the game plus markets on each quarter, so there should be something for everyone. I've been picking my way through the maze to provide some interesting wagers for Sunday night.

The game could be a lot closer than the odds suggest. Place kickers have assumed a prominent role in the Super Bowl in recent years with four of the last seven games decided by three points. A repeat scenario here would place the spotlight on both Arizona's Neil Rackers and Pittsburgh's Jeff Reed.

Both kickers have good records this year and in conditions that will be conducive to kicking, certainly better than those Pittsburgh kicker Reed usually ply's his trade in. The first of the special bets that catches the eye is to back the longest field goal yardage at over 43.5 yards. Both kickers have a regular season long of over 50 yards so will not lack leg strength and I'm sure both coaches will be keen to take the points on offer on more than one occasion.

The winning margin is a much discussed number especially in relation to the match handicap market but as already stated this game is a lot closer than it looks on paper and whilst Pittsburgh are capable of winning this game, they don't tend to blow sides away with explosive offence, relying more on their stifling defence to win them the game. Therefore, next up in the specials category is a lay of Pittsburgh to win by over 12 points.

I'm drawn by the balance of this game to the Most Valuable Player (MVP) market - or Man of the Match in UK terms - the usual recipients of this award are offensive - quarterbacks, wide receivers and running backs, but defensive players do and can win this award. Dexter Jackson, the Tampa Bay free safety, was the last in 2003.

If Pittsburgh, do win the game, I'm convinced that it will be because their number one ranked defence has held the Cardinals explosive offence in check. That will mean some MVP performances from any number of Steelers' players. Not least amongst these is their all-pro safety Troy Polamalu, who is rarely out of the game and is instantly recognisable with his long flowing hair, in fact I would not put anyone off having a few speculative bets at big odds on any member of the Pittsburgh "D".

At a shorter price for the Cardinals, WR Larry Fitzgerald would be my MVP pick, not only is he extremely liked by the media for his modest and unassuming manner (most unlike an NFL wide receiver!) but he is a wonderful talent and will be the focal point of many Cardinals attacks. He's also just broken legendary WR Jerry Rice's post season record for receiving yards so his confidence is high.

Touchdown scorer markets are also popular - first and last TD markets are available, but I thought I saw some value in the to score a TD market in the shape of two Steelers and one Cardinals player. The Steelers duo would be WR Santonio Holmes and TE Heath Miller who provides a safe pair of hands in the end zone. Cardinals RB Tim Hightower scored the TD that proved to be the winner in the NFC Championship game and I expect him to be used in similar situations on Sunday.

Last but not least, back to Santonio Holmes to gain more than 54.5 receiving yards. This bet takes on extra significance if WR Hines Ward plays a limited role on Sunday as Holmes will take even more prominence in the Steelers offensive set-up. Holmes is a dangerous WR and can gain big yards after the catch and that makes saying that he will have more than 54.5 reception yards very enticing.

Recommendations:

Back longest field goal over 43.5 yards at [2.02]
Lay Pittsburgh win by over 12 points at [3.25]
MVP - Troy Polamalu (Steelers) at [20.0] or Larry Fitzgerald (Cardinals) at [9.5]
To Score a TD - Santonio Holmes (Steelers) at 2.64 and Heath Miller (Steelers) at [3.0], Tim Hightower (Cardinals) [2.9]
Back Santonio Holmes more than 54.5 receiving yards at anything above [1.96]