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World Cup 2010

England v Kazakhstan Betting: The over/under 2.5 goals market

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Ed Nicholson talks us through the facts and stats to find the runner to back in the over/under 2.5 goals market as England host Kazakhstan on Saturday afternoon.

Kazakhstan are ranked 120th in the world - while England are as high as 15th.
The question is not whether England will win, but by how many goals they will win by. We've been here before haven't we?

I asked the same question prior to England's trip to Barcelona to play Andorra, and although on that ocassion I felt that the odds were in the favour of playing the unders - this time the call has to be the overs - even at [1.35.]

On my rankings the price should be around [1.30]. So not only is it likely to happen but I feel that the price represents excellent value as well. And so the column's first maximum 3pts
bet is advised.

Andorra were ranked 186th in the latest FIFA World rankings when England could only score two past them. But, significantly, that was in Barcelona, and England had an important match five days later. Those factors, among others, meant that backing the overs on that occasion was not the play at the price.

But this is an altogether different match, and although there is, as last time, a more important trip on the following Wednesday (in Belarus to face a team ranked 57th in FIFA's World Ranking), it is hardly as important or as difficult a fixture as the one to play Croatia was following Andorra in the last World Cup qualifying round of matches.

England's talented defence should shut out their opponent on home turf, so in effect we are analysing whether or not England can score three or more goals on Saturday evening; and given the players England have at their disposal this weekend, and the goal scoring form those players are in for their clubs, I think it is highly probable that England will hit at least three.

Wayne Rooney is fit and is scoring goals for club and country, and importantly for England so are his potential strike partners Jermain Defoe (5 goals in 30 England Internationals) and Peter Crouch (14 in 28). Add into the mix Theo Walcott (3 in 4) and midfield scoring sensations Steven Gerrard (13 in 68) and Frank Lampard (14 in 64) and you have an offensive set up capable of putting three, four or even five past Kazakhstan.

Although England have rarely excelled on the road against so called lesser sides, they do tend to exert their superiority over said teams when playing on home turf.

Another positive for those supporting the goals is that England players (and management) will want to put on a show for the fans given their last lamentable performance at Wembley when held to a 2-2 draw by the Czech Republic. Capello has stated he wants Wembley to become fortress Wembley, and that he doesn't want his England team to be booed - the best way for that to happen is for England to score goals - and plenty of them.

Finally, this may be the last chance for Gerrard and Lampard to demonstrate they work together for England, and you can be sure that both will not rest on their laurels at anytime - with the knowledge that it could be either's last England start. Frank Lampard is by all accounts playing some of the best football of his career and I can see him scoring and playing well.

Recommendation:

England and Kazakhstan have never played against each other but rankings and recent results suggest that Kazakhstan will struggle at Wembley. And, as England have managed to score two goals or more in each of their last seven Wembley appearances (and nine from last thirteen) against teams such as Czech Republic (ranked 9th in the World), Croatia (5th), Russia (12th) and Israel (19th) I would suggest that backing them to score at least three against a team ranked 120th in the World at [1.35] is the way to go. But, as an added safety net, (and a bet I will be making) you can also back the England 2-0 as a small stakes saver as well.

3pts England v Kazakhstan under 2.5 goals @ 1.35
0.2pts England v Kazakshstan 2-0 @ 7.8