Europa League / Dan Fitch / 08 April 2009 / Leave a comment

Manchester City's atrocious away record combined with the quality of their opposition means that anything other than defeat in Germany would be a good result, says Dan Fitch. Best Bet: Back Hamburg @ [2.12].

That Manchester City are no longer favourites to win the UEFA Cup, is a result of the tough draw they have been given. City's quarter-final opponents Hamburg, are arguably the best team left in the competition. City and Hamburg are both priced at [6.8] to win the UEFA Cup.

The first leg sees City travel to Hamburg and given their atrocious away record, if they can come away with a draw or narrow defeat, it would be considered a positive result. In losing to Arsenal at the weekend, City extended their run of away fixtures without a win, to 12 games.

They face a Hamburg side that are unbeaten in their last five games and who have lost just once at the HSH Nordbank Arena in the Bundesliga this season. Hamburg beat TSG Hoffenheim 1-0 on Saturday and are second in the league, behind leaders Wolfsburg on goal difference.

Former Tottenham boss Martin Jol has made a great success of his first season at his new club, especially when you consider that he has lost players of the calibre of Rafael van der Vaart to Real Madrid and of course, Vincent Kompany and Nigel de Jong to Manchester City.

De Jong is ineligible to play, while Kompany is struggling with an injury. Valeri Bojinov is out, Stephen Ireland is very unlikely to be fit and Wayne Bridge is a doubt. City may welcome back Martin Petrov, after he made a reserve appearance this week. Hamburg are without the suspended Jerome Boateng.

When the goalscorer markets open on Betfair closer to kick-off, expect the Croatian Mladen Petric to be [6.5] to score first and [3.0] to score anytime. His countryman Ivica Olic wil be around [7.5] and [3.2], with Paolo Guerrero at [8.0] and [3.3]. For City, Craig Bellamy will be around [9.0] and [3.5], with Robinho [10.0] and [3.8].

Guerrero scored twice in the last round against Galatasary and generally caused havoc, in a 3-2 win. At home though, Hamburg have struggled for goals in this competition, breaking the 2.5 barrier on just one occasion from five games. With City having not scored in their last four away games, under 2.5 goals looks favourite at [1.79], with overs at [2.24].

Hamburg are the [2.12] favourites, with the draw [3.5] and Manchester City [4.0]. When in charge of Spurs, Jol won all six of his games against City and I expect another on Thursday.

Hamburg are [3.55] to win half time/full time, with the draw/Hamburg at [5.2]. In the correct score markets, Hamburg to win 1-0 is [7.8], with 2-0 at [11.5] and 2-1 at [10]. Hamburg are [2.74] to keep a clean sheet, with City [4.2] to do likewise.