Europa League / Mike Norman / 17 September 2009 / Leave a comment

Everton have been disappointing this season whilst Fulham are set to make wholesale changes. It all means that their respective games against AEK Athens and CSKA Sofia tonight are set to be tough encounters says Mike Norman.

Recommended Bets;
Lay Everton @ 1.58 v AEK Athens; Back YES @ 6.4 to AEK Clean Sheet;
Back Sofia HT/Sofia FT @ 5.1 v Fulham; Back Marquinhos @ 19.5 in First Goalscorer and @ 7.8 in To Score

Everton [1.57] v AEK Athens [8.2]; The Draw [4.2]

You have to ask yourself whether Everton really want to be in this competition before deciding how you play the markets.

My view is that a place in the Europa League is a poor reward for a club that spent much of the previous season desperately trying to break into the top four, and with it, qualification to the Champions League. You only have to look at Spurs last season, who quite frankly couldn't wait to be eliminated from the UEFA Cup as it was becoming a hindrance to their main objective - avoiding relegation.

Aston Villa have already gone from this season's Europa League and can now concentrate solely on trying to finish in the top four. I have a feeling that David Moyes wishes he was in the same boat.

Everton will be without Phil Neville this evening after he damaged his knee ligaments on Sunday, whilst defenders Tony Hibbert (suspended) and John Heitinga (ineligible) will also be absent. New summer signing Diniyar Bilyaletdinov will make his full Everton debut and could be joined in the starting line-up by the now fit Yakubu.

Everton's sketchy start to the Premier League season, and my underlining fear that they don't really want to be in this competition, means I have to recommend them as a lay at [1.58] in the Match Odds market. AEK Athens are no slouches, and although their season is just a few weeks old they have recorded two wins from two without conceding a goal.

A low-scoring game is how I see tonight's game going, with Everton having much possession but being frustrated by Athens' stubborn defence. Under 2.5 Goals is available to back at [1.89] and Under 1.5 Goals can be backed at an appealing [3.7]. If you prefer to back Over 2.5 Goals, you can currently get matched at [2.1]; and if you think the game will go the complete opposite way to what I think then you might be persuaded to back Over 3.5 Goals at [3.75].

The only other market that catches my eye is the AEK Clean Sheet market. The Yes option is available to back at [6.4] and to me, that's well worth a punt.

In the Correct Score market you won't be surprised to learn that my tentative selection is 0-0 ([13.5]), but the more fancied outcomes are the 1-0 ([7.2]) and 2-0 ([7.4]) scorelines in favour of the home team.

CSKA Sofia [2.66] v Fulham [3.05]; The Draw [3.3]

When I first glanced at the markets for this match (Tuesday) CSKA were on offer at [3.35] in the Match Odds market. I was tempted to take that price but instead got a little greedy, leaving up a request to be matched at [3.5]. None of you blighters obliged, and I now see that the Bulgarians are available to back at just [2.66]. More fool me I say.

I really fancy Sofia in this game, and that's nothing to do with Fulham's desire to be in this competition because, unlike Everton, a place in the Europa League was fantastic reward for Roy Hodgson's men and they will unquestionably be trying their hardest to win the thing.

My confidence in a home victory stems from Sofia's hugely impressive start to their league campaign. True, the Bulgarian league isn't the strongest in the world but you can't ignore Sofia's start, 2-0 and 5-0 victories away from home (as well as a 0-0 draw) and 3-0 and 4-0 victories at their Bulgarian Army Stadium. That's five games played, 14 goals scored, and none conceded. They also recorded a 2-1 victory away to the much more fancied Dynamo Moscow to reach this stage of the Europa League.

It's also worth pointing out that Roy Hodgson says he is going to rotate his team dramatically for this evening's fixture. Andrew Johnson, Bobby Zamora and Brede Hangeland will be rested, whilst Damien Duff and Clint Dempsey won't be risked after picking up knocks at the weekend.

I fancy a home victory, but having ignored that generous price of [3.35] the other day I feel obliged to look to some other markets in search of a nice profit.

CSKA Sofia/CSKA Sofia in the Half Time/Full Time market appeals at [5.1] as does the YES option in the CSKA Sofia Win Both Halves market - available to back at a very tempting [10.5]. Remember, this is a team that are favourites to win the game, have scored a bag full of goals already this season, and have yet to concede in the league; playing against a team with little experience in Europe who are set to make sweeping changes.

I would imagine there will be a lot of interest in the First Goalscorer market for this game as the outcome really does look wide open.

Andy Johnson (who is unlikely to start) is the [6.6] favourite, just ahead of Sofia's striking duo of Michel ([7.4]) and Rui Miguel ([8.2]). My preferred choice however is Marquinhos, a Brazilian playmaker in the Andrey Arshavin mould. He is quick and very attack minded, so at [19.5] to be the First Goalscorer, and at [7.8] in the To Score (at anytime) market, he should give us a good run for our money - providing he plays of course.

Tags: AEK Athens, Andrew Johnson, CSKA Sofia, David Moyes, Europa League, Europa League Betting, Everton, Fulham, Roy Hodgson, Yakubu