World Cup Day 34 Tipsheet: Mark Stinchcombe's best bets for Spain v Argentina including a 9/2 treble

Spain v Argentina Tip - Back Yamal to foul his way to a winner

Click here for Spain v Argentina odds
Sunday, 20:00
Live on BBC1/ITV1

The ultimate football match takes place on Sunday evening as the Champions of Europe take on the Champions of South America as the EURO 2024 holders face battle against the Copa America 2024 winners. After seven games both come here unbeaten so what's going to give?

Spain come in as 5/42.25 favourites and I think that's a little short. Argentina have scored the most goals in the tournament with 19, whilst Spain have scored six fewer with 13. Argentina have generated 14.4 expected goals compared to Spain's 13.3. Despite Argentina having conceded seven goals to Spain's one, their xG against is only 4.0 versus Espana's 2.1.

So in-terms of xG differential (xG created - xG conceded), Spain's is 11.2 versus Argentina's 10.4. So only 0.8 difference and across seven games that convers to just 0.11 per-game. That would make Spain 6/42.50 favourites yet their current price rates them 0.3 goals better than Argentina.

I didn't think much to Spain's semi-final win. Yes they nullified the French attack but man for man all over the park France looked tired and lacked fight. Despite this, there wasn't much to separate the sides with the non-penalty xG just 0.84 v 0.31 in Spain's favour.

And here there has to be an element of home advantage for Argentina, with likely more fans in the stadium and the players more used to the climate and conditions. When Spain played another South American side in Uruguay they weren't convincing, winning 1-0 managing just six shots in the match.

Based on the above, I'm tempted by Argentina to avoid defeat in 90 minutes.

Is Over 2.5 Goals a bet?

In-terms of goals, it's no surprise under 2.5 goals is 6/101.60 favourite. Typically finals are low scoring games and before 2018, this century had seen World Cup final scores of 0-0, 0-0, 1-1 and 2-0. But football has evolved over the last 10 years, and elite attacks tend to be better than elite defences, showcased by the last two finals of 3-3 and 4-2!

This trend has also been noticeable in the 30 knockout matches so far, as rather than tight and cagey, 25 of them have seen two or more goals.

Spain may have only conceded one goal but still three of their seven games have gone Over 2.5 goals. For Argentina, four of their seven have had three or more goals. Again it's tempting to back Over 2.5 at 6/52.20 but not quite enough given the occasion.

Can we profit with Yamal fouls?

Where the match could be won and lost is down Spain's right-hand side, Argentina's left. Lamine Yamal is Spain's biggest threat going forward but has just one goal and zero assists to his name most likely as a result of not being fully fit following a hamstring injury at the end of the season.

It seems this has frustrated him and lead to him making lots of fouls - the most in the whole of Spain's squad. He's averaging 2.2 fouls per-90 minutes including three versus France, two versus Belgium and a whopping five versus Portugal.

This looks a good matchup to produce more fouls against Argentina's Nicolas Tagliafico who's no stranger to drawing plenty of fouls - the second most after Messi in the Argentina squad. He's been fouled 10 times in four starts at an average of 2.5 per-game. We can back Lamine Yamal to commit two or more fouls at 1/12.00.

Stinch's Acca - Back a Spain v Argentina treble at 9/25.50

With Betfair's Bet £10 Get £10 on ACCAs or bet builders at the World Cup let's add the aforementioned Tagliafico to be fouled two or more times at 8/111.73.

In Argentina's victory over England, they really went after the English midfield from the off, continuing throughout the game to press, harass and ultimately foul to stop them playing. Elliott Anderson and Jude Bellingham were both fouled FOUR times and I think they will have already identified Spanish centre-mid Rodri is key to how they play.

He's averaging over 100 passes a game! France fouled him three times and we can get 4/51.80 he's fouled just twice.

Now read more World Cup tips here!