Europa League / Jamie "The Pacman" Pacheco / 04 November 2009 / Leave a comment

Mediocre league results, an ever-growing injury list and a 5-0 drubbing in Portugal two weeks ago doesn't bode well for Everton fans. But how can we punters make money from this match, asks Jamie Pacheco.

"All in all I can’t understand why “overs”, which I estimated to be priced at around 1.8, is currently trading at 2.14. That bet is simply too good to miss."

When I tipped Benfica to beat Everton and over 2.5 goals a couple of weeks ago I must admit I didn't expect a 5-0 score line. But the Benfica class of 2009/10 is capable of doing that to some pretty good teams, though I can't imagine that sort of demolition job away from the Estadio Da Luz.

That's not to say that you should be enquiring about their odds of winning next year's Champions League just yet. They proved that they're not invincible by going down 2-0 away to Braga at the weekend. But Braga are currently top of the table with eight wins and a draw from nine matches and there were mitigating circumstances; Benfica's Brazilian international defender Luisao had a perfectly good goal disallowed and their best striker Oscar Cardozo was sent off after getting involved in a half-time "kerfuffle" in the tunnel that also resulted in his Braga counterpart being dismissed.

To add a little more spice to the whole story, Benfica are threatening to enforce legal proceedings against Braga after one of the home team's coaching staff was alleged to have physically assaulted at least one Benfica player. Whereas I can't condone such goings-on in football, it does ensure the Portuguese league is rarely dull.

Legal proceedings will be the last thing on coach Jorge Jesus' mind when they face Everton on Thursday night and Cardozo will of course be available given it's a domestic ban he's now facing. A couple of fringe players, such as Carlos Martins, miss out through injury but as in the first match of this double-header, Jesus has virtually his whole squad to choose from. Which is more than can be said for his counterpart David Moyes: Steven Pienaar, Phil Neville and Phil Jagielka are still long-term absentees and there was bad news at Goodison Park when it was revealed Mikel Arteta, arguably the most important player in the squad, has had a setback in his recovery from a cruciate knee injury. Johnny Heitinga and Lucas Neill remain ineligible and worse still, top-scorer Louis Saha may miss the clash through injury as well.

Everton are languishing in 13th in the league and haven't won any of their last six matches. That's unlikely to change on Thursday. A lay of the home side at [2.5] is a pretty safe bet but it's not the best one. You can back Everton at [1.8] with a +0.25 start and that's the way to go. If you bet £10 on this outcome and it ended a draw you'd make a £4 profit and if Benfica were to win, you'd make an £8 profit.

Before consulting the over/under 2.5 goals prices I was adamant this was a market to avoid. But having had a quick look at the stats I'm really not so sure. Yes, Everton's recent league results have been low scoring but take a look at Benfica's; prior to the 2-0 reversal at Braga they won their last six matches by the following scorelines (6-1, 3-1, 5-0, 2-1, 4-0 and 8-1!). All three of Everton's Europa League matches this season have been "overs" affairs (admittedly Benfica's first two were "unders") and all in all I can't understand why "overs", which I estimated to be priced at around [1.8], is currently trading at [2.14]. That bet is simply too good to miss.

Lastly, I'm siding with two bad boys to get on the score sheet. Both Oscar Cardozo and Diniyar Biliyaletdinov were shown straight reds at the weekend but look value to score at anytime at around [3.0] and [5.0] respectively.

Tags: Benfica squad, Europa Leagues, Everton v Benfica preview, football bets, Jamie pacheco betting, Mikel Arteta injury