The Betfair Contrarian: Why Newcastle are going straight back down

The Betfair Contrarian / The Betfair Contrarian / 11 August 2010 / 2 Comments

StevenTaylor and Damien Duff at the final whistle on the final day in May 2009; there could welll be a repeat of it all again this year

"Any danger of Mike Ashley’s popularity at Newcastle improving following promotion was swiftly crushed when the club released a statement confirming that they had no plans to start spending."

Newcastle may well be one of the sides who have spent most time in the Premier League over the years and last year's Championship winners but the Betfair Contrarian is convinced they're heading straight back to where they came from.

The Betfair Contrarian: Why Newcastle will go straight back down

Newcastle fans should be advised ahead of Monday night's trip to Old Trafford that it takes less than 90 minutes for pre-season optimism to be stripped away, as supporters of Middlesbrough, Norwich, Bristol City and Southampton all learned last week. Nobody is talking about the Toon Army tumbling, but why - are they really any better off than they were two seasons ago? The Contrarian doesn't think so, and is backing them to make an instant return to the Championship at [4.6]...

Championship champions are never immune

Topping the Championship provides no guarantee of a prolonged Premier League stay. In fact, of the last six sides promoted as champions, three have gone straight back down. It's also notable that two of the survivors showed great ambition in the transfer market, with Sunderland spending millions in the summer of 2007, and Wolves breaking their transfer record to buy Kevin Doyle last year. Those that were relegated, Norwich in 2004-05, Sunderland in 2005-06 (with a then record-breaking 15 points) and West Brom in 2008-09, didn't strengthen enough. So far, Newcastle have spent around £1 million - on Nottingham Forest utility man James Perch.

Their additions have been uninspiring

Besides Perch, the only signings the club have made are Dan Gosling and Sol Campbell on free transfers. Campbell did a decent job at Arsenal last season but has been accused of piling on the pounds since, while Gosling's capture is regarded as a coup more so because of Everton's error that allowed him to leave for nothing than a genuine belief that he will make a huge impact. He started just nine league games while playing with the Toffees. Ten of the 11 most frequent Magpies performers last season were all there during the relegation campaign, so it's still pretty much the same team.

Mike Ashley is still there

There's a link between the three biggest fallers in the Premier League last season, Liverpool (second to seventh), West Ham (ninth to 17th) and Portsmouth (14th to 20th) - instability in the boardroom. Liverpool had owners that didn't communicate (well, one of their sons sent a sweary e-mail to a fan), West Ham were run by a bankrupt bank until David Sullivan and David Gold took over in January (and they were later accused of unsettling the squad) while Portsmouth had almost as many owners as players, and absolutely no money. Any danger of Mike Ashley's popularity at Newcastle improving following promotion was swiftly crushed when the club released a statement confirming that they had no plans to start spending.

Hughton has a poor Premier League record

What have Neil Warnock, Billy Davies and Tony Mowbray got in common? All three have impressive records in the Championship but, admittedly hindered by a lack of transfer funds, failed to deliver in the Premier League. Chris Hughton may soon add himself to that list, having had the worst points average of all four men who took charge of Newcastle in 2008-09, winning just one of his nine league games as caretaker, while losing six.

Last season's strugglers have improved

As was the case when Newcastle went down, there were several teams who performed badly and were fortuitous not to go down last season, however the three who came the closest to the drop all now look stronger. West Ham have brought in five players, and have upgraded from inexperienced boss Gianfranco Zola to former Champions League finalist Avram Grant, while the latest in a long line of predicted fire sales has yet to materialise. Wigan, meanwhile have brought in the top goalscorer in last year's Copa Libertadores, Mauro Boselli, among others, and Wolves have been the most impressive of the lot, splashing more cash than any Premier League club besides Manchester City.

Comments (2)

1. Paul | 12 August 2010

   A good shout from The Betfair Contrarian! I think it is between Newcastle and Wolves for that final third relegation spot. My bottom three are:
   20. Blackpool
   19. WBA
   18. Wolves or Newcastle
   

2. vasilis | 26 December 2010

   i dont agree at all

   comparing statistics of other teams who relegated last seasons with this years' Newcastle it doesnt much sense to me

   i cannot see a team that beat Liverpool/Arsenal and draw with Chelsea relegate in the same season