Betfair Official Blog

Blackburn have suffered just two defeats at home in the league in the last 10 months, but they came against Chelsea and more recently Arsenal. Over the last three seasons only Middlesbrough and the Big Four have better home records against the Big Four than Rovers, who have gone W4-D3-L6, although three of the wins came in 05/06. They have been a constant thorn in the side of United, the champions winning in only one of their last eight league visits to Ewood Park.

United's away form of late has been suspect, winning only two of their last seven on the road and suffering more defeats away since 2007 (W16-D8-L7) than any of the other Big Four sides. Against top-half sides they are just W10-D7-L9 since the start of 2006 and, after discounting games against the Big Four, their record only improves to W8-D3-L5. It is hard to justify a comfortably odds-on (1.64) away win price. The most common score at Ewood Park recently has been the 1-1 draw occurring in five of the last 11 matches, six of the 22 since the start of last season and in two of the five against the Big Four in that time. Just under half of Rovers' home games against the Big Four since the start of the 05/06 season have ended 1-0 (three home wins and three home defeats). Two of United's six games last season away to non-Big Four top-half teams finished 1-1. Over the last three seasons, a 2-1 win was the other most frequent score for United (both 4/19).

If anything, 1-1 looks the best value option (8.2), although there is nothing particularly strong in this market. As with the correct score there is no stand-out option in this market. The most frequently occurring result for United (taken from the same sample as before) is the W/W (5/19), narrowly ahead of the D/W and L/L (4/19). Blackburn's most frequent result at home against the Big Four over the same period is the L/L (4/13), followed by the W/W (3/13).

The value here is probably in Blackburn/Blackburn at 14.5 (a combined 7/32 compared to 9/32 for the United win/win of those samples????), although with Ince's only home game against the Big four thus far a 4-0 drubbing, it is hard to back. Blackburn's clean sheet in their most recent game at Ewood Park against Fulham was their first in the last nine home league games and one of only five they have kept since the start of last season. Only Fulham and West Ham have had fewer home clean sheets of teams still in the division. Rovers have kept four in their last 17 at home against the Big Four in the league.

United may be slightly struggling for goals by their standards, but no team has kept them off the score sheet in the league since Bolton last November, their only failure in their last 40 matches. 'No', even at 1.16, looks the value here. United have kept nine clean sheets in their 22 games on the road since the start of last season but only two in 11 against teams in the top half. It is worth noting that United won only two of the 13 (15%) away games in which they conceded in that period, compared to 43% for the rest of the Big Four combined.

Blackburn have failed to score in just two of their 12 at home in 2008. Since their 4-3 win over United here three seasons ago, they have scored five goals in 12 games at home to the Big Four and never more than one a match. That suggests some value in a 2.24 price for the away clean sheet, but with United's recent defensive struggles against better teams it is probably best to stay away.

Digg It

Benefits and offers

Services

Radio        Live Video