Betfair Official Blog

Wigan's draw at Stamford Bridge back on April 14th, the day after Manchester United had beaten Arsenal, seemed to have put paid to any lingering Chelsea title hopes. Few would have predicted that the Latics still had a deciding role to play in the destiny of the Premiership trophy, but as it is, Man Utd need to at least equal Chelsea's result at home to Bolton - or it will be on its way south. Either way, this could be the first Premiership to be decided on goal difference.

At one level, Man Utd 's prospects are good. Wigan are safe, and in their manager, have one of the most loyal of Ferguson disciples. Equally, whilst Man Utd's 1994/95 last day draw at West Ham will still rankle, when Blackburn's defeat at Liverpool opened the door for their third Premiership title, the two times Man Utd have had their destiny in their own hands with a game to go, they haven't yet faltered (2-1 at home to Spurs 1998/99 when chased by Arsenal, 3-0 away to Middlesbrough 1995/96 with Newcastle on their heels).

At another level, their price looks illogically short. Wigan are in their best form of the season - unbeaten in their last five games - and under Steve Bruce, have put their legendary poor record against the Big Four (W0-D0-L20 up to his arrival) behind them, taking a point from all his three such games so far. Indeed, they haven't lost at the JJB for seven games - a sequence that includes a goalless draw with Arsenal, enough to end any realistic Gunner's title hopes. What's more, Man Utd haven't won on the road since they sneaked past Derby four away games ago, only the 16th time they've failed to win away for so long in the Premiership era.

Whilst their W9-D2-L5 overall record in such circumstances will probably do very little to dampen any Chelsea optimism, their W7-D0-L1 since 1998/99 might settle any Man Utd nerves. Indeed, further Manchester beta-blocking might come from Steve Bruce's overall Big Four record, losing 20/38 games in his managerial career (9/18 at home), as well as his W0-D2-L7 record against his old club whilst at Birmingham (W0-D2-L3 at St Andrews).

Giving some justification for Man Utd's win price (they've only been sub [1.3] at Derby in their history of Premiership away games), Wigan have already lost to five of the nine top-half teams to visit the JJB this season, including Everton and Aston Villa on Bruce's watch - Man Utd beating 15/21 bottom-half teams on the road since the beginning of last season.

In 16 Premiership games on the last day of the season, between a team with nothing to play for and a Big Four team that did, the Big Four side have led at half-time in only three. The JJB has the lowest overall yield of all Premiership grounds this season (36) - all seven games in the Latics current unbeaten sequence there failing to get over the 2.5 goal-line. Should Man Utd win the game, seven of their victories on the road this season have been to nil (four 1-0's, one 2-0, one 3-0, one 4-0). Wigan's relatively paltry 21 goals at the JJB this season is significant, as Man Utd have won only four of the last 17 away games in which they've conceded, 2/11 this season (Newcastle and Villa). Wigan have failed to score in 7/11 home matches against the Big Four since they were promoted.

	Wigan				Head to Head		Man Utd
	Last 5 home	Last 19 home	Last 38 all	Last 5 v opp A form	Wigan home	Wigan all	Last 5 away	Last 19 away	Last 38 all	Last 5 v opp H form
Played	5	19	38	5	2	5	5	19	38	5
Av Match YC	4.2	3.6	3.2	4.6	5.0	2.8	3.6	4.0	3.5	3.6
Match RC	2	4	9	1	0	0	0	4	10	2
Av Team YC	1.8	1.6	1.7	2.0	2.5	1.4	1.4	1.7	1.3	1.6
Team RC	1	2	5	0	0	0	0	1	2	1
Av Opp YC	2.4	2.1	1.5	2.6	2.5	1.4	2.2	2.3	2.2	2.0
Opp RC	1	2	4	1	0	0	0	3	8	1
Av Match FG	47	40	43	37	33	39	33	37	35	34
Av Team FG	48	55	60	58	33	67	49	53	46	48
Av Opp FG	73	60	56	49	68	53	56	61	66	58
Av Match Cnrs	9.8	9.6	9.9	8.2	7.5	10.4	12.2	11.0	10.7	11.6
Av Team Cnrs	5.2	5.5	4.8	4.8	4.0	3.6	7.6	6.3	6.9	7.8
Av Opp Cnrs	4.6	4.1	5.1	3.4	3.5	6.8	4.6	4.7	3.8	3.8