Premier League Stats: Aston Villa v Newcastle United

Stats / Bettorlogic / 21 May 2009 / Leave a comment Free £25 Bet

Newcastle United have left themselves with it all to do on the final day of the season. Do BettorLogic believe Alan Shearer's men can save themselves at Villa Park?
Best Bet: Back Aston Villa/Aston Villa @ [4.5]

Match Odds

Newcastle's defeat at home to Fulham last weekend means their fate is out of their hands. At the very least the Magpies must avoid defeat at Villa Park and even a win may not be enough. Unfortunately for them, their prospects of victory look very slim. This season they have gone W0-D3-L6 away to the sides currently in the top half -- in keeping with their W4-D5-L30 record at top-half finishers from the past four seasons. Even neglecting games at the Big Four from those samples, the figures still read W0-D1-L4 this season and W4-D4-L15 from the previous four, which makes Villa's [2.44] win price look very generous indeed.

Villa have won over 60% (W17-D7-L4) of their games hosting bottom-half finishers (including this season's bottom-half sides) under O'Neill, including a W13-D2-L2 record against the bottom six.

The only issue then, is whether Villa will play at full effort. Recent late-season performances against relegation-threatened sides suggest they will. Their last match saw them beat Hull 1-0, with little at stake themselves and their final game at Villa Park two seasons ago was a 3-0 drubbing of Sheffield United that helped condemn the Blades to Championship football.

More generally, in the Premier League era, relegation-threatened teams playing away on the last day of the season against a side with nothing to play for have gone W4-D9-L9, although a slightly more encouraging W2-D4-L2 for those actually in the relegation zone at the start of the game. There is very little to suggest Newcastle can win this game and most signs point to a Villa win ([2.44]) to send Shearer's side down.

Correct score

The 2-1 defeat (5/28) has occurred most often in Newcastle's sample at top-half (non-Big Four) teams over the last five years as well as away against all teams (4/18) this season. 0-0 (5/18) has been easily the most common score at Villa Park this season while the 2-0 and 2-1 (both 3/17) wins have been most common for Villa when hosting bottom-six sides under O'Neill. While not especially strong, there is some agreement and the 2-1 home win ([10.0]) is probably the best option here.

HT/FT

Villa have recorded a W/W in over half (9/17) of their games at home to bottom-six sides since the start of 2006/07 and in 12 of 28 against bottom-half teams. Newcastle have suffered a L/L in 12 of their 28 at top-half (non-Big Four) teams over the past five seasons, including in four of five such games this season. The home W/W looks excellent value at [4.5].

Aston Villa clean sheet

Newcastle have failed to score in nine of their 28 games at top-half (non-big four) sides in the last five years but in only two of 11 over the past two campaigns. They have also been blanked by only four non-Big Four sides on the road this season.
Villa have kept six clean sheets at home this season but managed only two in their last 10. Against bottom-half sides over the last three seasons, they have kept 10 clean sheets in 28 games (seven in 17 hosting bottom-six sides). A Villa clean sheet looks unlikely but about priced in at [3.7].

Newcastle clean sheet

Villa have failed to score in only four of 28 games hosting bottom-half teams since O'Neill took charge -- and only one of 17 against a bottom-six side -- although they have drawn a blank in front of the home fans six times this season. Newcastle haven't kept a clean sheet on the road in 2009 and have managed just two in 28 games at top-half (non-Big Four) teams over the last five seasons, making the Newcastle clean sheet unbackable.