Premier League Stats: Aston Villa v Manchester United

Stats / Editor / 21 November 2008 / Leave a comment Free £25 Bet

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Match Odds

Last weekend's win at the Emirates ended a 19-game winless streak against Arsenal and a 25-game run without a win at the Big Four for Villa. They have a chance to end two more long-standing hoodoos: they are winless against United in 25 league matches and have lost 11 successive games to the Red Devils (the joint-longest run in Premier League history).
Villa have improved steadily under Martin O'Neill and their record against the Big Four confirms this (W2-D8-L9 compared to W1-D5-L18 in the preceding three seasons), although most of that progress has come on the road (W1-D3-L5 at Villa Park; W1-D5-L6 in the three seasons before). This is in keeping with their relatively average home record (W13-D5-L7; 8% above the league average compared to 33% for their away record) since the start of last season and, against all top-half sides under O'Neill, they are just W5-D9-L8.
United have the weakest away record of the Big Four in that time as well (W12-D7-L6) and have gone W4-D4-L5 at top-half sides (W3-D2-L2 excluding the Big Four). Half of United's away wins last season came at teams that finished in the bottom six (W5-D0-L1), going W5-D5-L3 against the rest of the league and W4-D4-L2 against non-Big Four sides.
Only historical precedent - rather than recent form - suggests United ([1.82]) should be odds on for the win, with the value appearing to be in the draw ([3.8]).

Correct score

Dating back to last season, Man U's most common results on the road have been 1-1 and 1-0 (both 5/25) followed by the 1-2 (4/25). Three of the 1-2s were at Big Four sides, with the 1-1 and 1-0 (both 4/19) still most common at the rest of the league and the 1-1 the most common against top-half non-Big Four sides going back to last season (2/7) and the season before (3/12).

With the draw (9/22) recurrent in Villa's home matches against top-half teams under O'Neill, it is unsurprising to see the 1-1 (5/22) and 0-0 (4/22) dominate. Villa have scored in four of their most recent five games against the Big Four so the 1-1 ([7.8]) looks the best option.

HT/FT

Villa haven't had a half-time lead against the Big Four in any of their 21 home games over the last five years, with the L/L (4/9) and D/D (3/9) most common HT/FT outcomes in the O'Neill era. Against all top-half sides it is the latter (8/22) that stands out.
United's first-half record (W7-D2-L4) away to such sides since the start of last season is much better than their full-time figures and the W/D is one of the three most common (3/13 along with the W/W and L/L) in that sample.

Aston Villa clean sheet

Villa have kept four clean sheets in O'Neill's nine home games against the Big Four - a better rate than against the rest of the league (12/35). Although their last one against Man U came on New Year's Day 1997 at Old Trafford and United have scored in each of their last 18 on the road - the longest away scoring run in the division.

Man Utd clean sheet

The champions defensive efforts on the road have been less impressive, with one clean sheet in six this season and three in 13 at top-half sides (2/7 excluding the Big Four) dating back to last term. Villa netted in all four when hosting the Big Four last season and have failed to score in only two of 13 at home to top-half sides since the start of last season, so 'No' looks value at [1.53].