Betfair Official Blog

The third most improved team this season (behind Arsenal and Manchester City), Aston Villa go to Goodison Park off the back of three consecutive wins, only the second time they've achieved this feat under Martin O'Neill. The last such sequence was the pre-cursor to a 4-0 win at top-half Blackburn earlier this season, so the Villains should arrive on Merseyside with confidence. They're also now scoring for fun, accumulating 15 goals over the three victories - the joint-highest tally and the best goal difference over a three-game period in Premiership history - albeit against three of the teams in the current bottom five.

With the tougher finish (Villa, Arsenal A, Newcastle H), Everton need to win this game to cement their fifth position, their best since 2004/05. Their eight-game form is decidedly mediocre (12th) though, losing as many games as they've won - and scoring only seven goals in the process (only once more than one).

Their loss to Chelsea last Thursday was their fourth at Goodison this season, all to Big Four opposition - and brings into play some strong patterns for the Toffees after a home defeat, not drawing (home or away) for 22 games after such a result under David Moyes, winning 12 and losing 10, most recently at Villa earlier this season. When playing again at Goodison straight after a home loss, they've bounced back well under the Scotsman in more recent times, winning five of their last seven.

Indeed, a feature of Everton's renaissance over this season and last has been their very efficient home form against top-half, non-Big Four teams, winning six of their last 10 and losing only to Villa themselves, when they visited in the early part of 2006/07. Indeed, in all of the three seasons where they've finished top-10 under Moyes, Everton have lost only 3/18 games against their closest non-Big Four rivals (W11-D4-L3). Adding in this season's record, this improves to W14-D6-L3.

Further reducing the likelihood of an away victory, Villa have won only two of 15 games on the road against top-half teams since their victory on Merseyside last season (both at Blackburn), but have developed a resilience under O'Neill that has seen them lose only six of 19 overall (W3-D10-L6). Indeed, their away record outstrips their record at Villa Park (W3-D7-L7) against the League's top-10 during his tenure - and includes draws at three of the Big Four this season (losing 0-4 at Manchester United). Fifteen of 23 of Everton's home games against top-10 non Big Four teams since the beginning of the 2004/05 season have featured -2.5 goals - 11 of which have ended 1-0 (6) or 0-1 (5). Indeed, all 10 of Everton's such defeats at Goodison, back to the beginning of the Premiership, have been by the game's only goal.

In contrast though, only Reading's away games have produced more than Villa's 58 goals this season (3.4 GPG) with their 33 scored being the most by any team in the league - 11/17 getting over the 2.5 goal-line - and five +3.5. Indeed, since O'Neill took over, Villa have scored in 29 of their 36 away Premiership games - only Man Utd and Chelsea scoring in more over the same period.

That said, only five of O'Neill's 12 away games against top-half non-Big Four opposition have produced more than two goals. The Toffees have reached the break level in two thirds (10/15) of their last 15 Goodison Park encounters against Villa. First goal is crucial in these games at Goodison. The Toffees have won only one of their last 18 games where they concede first at home (losing 13) - but when up against top-half non-Big Four teams, have failed to win only one of their last 10 when opening the scoring, albeit against West Ham in their last such home game.

	Everton				Head to Head		Aston Villa
	Last 5 home	Last 19 home	Last 38 all	Last 5 v opp A form	Everton home	Everton all	Last 5 away	Last 19 away	Last 38 all	Last 5 v opp H form
Played	5	19	38	5	5	10	5	19	38	5
Av Match YC	1.6	2.4	2.7	3.6	3.6	2.9	2.4	2.9	3.3	3.4
Match RC	0	4	5	2	0	0	2	6	9	6
Av Team YC	0.4	0.6	1.1	1.0	1.6	1.2	1.0	1.4	1.4	1.4
Team RC	0	3	3	1	0	0	1	2	4	2
Av Opp YC	1.2	1.8	1.6	2.6	2.0	1.7	1.4	1.5	1.9	2.0
Opp RC	0	1	2	1	0	0	1	4	5	4
Av Match FG	34	36	40	28	42	38	23	30	28	17
Av Team FG	43	44	52	30	55	58	53	50	46	49
Av Opp FG	65	70	66	70	54	54	60	54	54	36
Av Match Cnrs	12.8	11.8	11.3	10.2	12.4	11.7	11.6	12.7	12.2	9.6
Av Team Cnrs	7.0	6.4	5.2	5.8	6.2	5.9	5.8	5.7	6.1	4.2
Av Opp Cnrs	5.8	5.5	6.1	4.4	6.2	5.8	5.8	7.0	6.1	5.4