Betfair Official Blog

With still six potential takers for the two remaining relegation spots - and Manchester United and Chelsea toe-to-toe up top - this is shaping up to be the most exciting season finish since 1997/98. A win here would put Bolton safe, given Birmingham's visit to Fulham - and would complete a remarkable escape act by Gary Megson, taking more points over four games than he'd done in his previous 16.

Four wins in six games has put the Black Cats safe - and such is the tightness of the bottom half - still with the potential to finish 11th, should they win their last two games. However, it's Sunderland's form at The Stadium of light (eighth strongest) that's been responsible for their survival, only hapless Derby losing more games on the road. Only four of their 13 defeats have been at teams in the current bottom half - and they did win at Fulham three games ago - but Sunderland have confirmed over the course of this season that they are very different propositions at home and on the road.

Equally, Bolton haven't lost at home to a bottom-half team since the season's opening day (to Newcastle), beating Wigan, Birmingham, Derby and Reading and sharing the points with Fulham, Middlesbrough and Spurs since then.

At an all-team level, teams that are safe but with no prospect of Europe, have lost eight of 11 away games to bottom-five teams (who can still go down) in games 37 and 38 of the season, suggesting that motivation counts for a lot here. Indeed, teams in the bottom five but alive at this stage of the season (after game 34) have shown clear supremacy (W9-D3-L2) at home to safe bottom-half teams this decade, Wigan's draw with Spurs last weekend the only instance so far this season. There are strong low goal patterns for both teams. Only Portsmouth have produced more -1.5 goal home games than Bolton this season (10/18 - 2.5) - and only Pompey and Wigan less goals overall. In addition, Sunderland have failed to score in 10/18 away matches - and nine of their 13 defeats - although they have registered in half of their eight other away games against the bottom half. Five of Bolton's six home wins this season have been to nil. Over the last three seasons, 78% (21/27) of Bolton's games at home to teams in the bottom half have gone to the break level, with 16 of them goalless at half-time. Since the beginning of 2005/06, when Bolton score first at home they go on to win 68% of their matches (23/34). This season, they've won six of nine when opening the scoring, failing to convert against only Aston Villa (D), Blackburn (L) and Arsenal (L).

Sunderland have lost 13/14 away games when they've conceded first, only recovering points at Birmingham, in their first away game.

	Bolton				Head to Head		Championship Winner
	Last 5 home	Last 19 home	Last 38 all	Last 5 v opp A form	Bolton home	Bolton all	Last 5 away	Last 19 away	Last 38 all	Last 5 v opp H form
Played	5	19	38	5	15	30	5	19	38	5
Av Match YC	2.4	3.0	3.4	2.6	3.6	3.4	3.6	3.3	3.2	2.8
Match RC	1	1	2	1	1	1	0	3	4	1
Av Team YC	1.4	1.7	2.1	1.6	1.3	1.8	2.0	2.0	1.7	1.8
Team RC	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	4	1
Av Opp YC	1.0	1.3	1.3	1.0	2.3	1.6	1.6	1.3	1.4	1.0
Opp RC	1	1	2	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
Av Match FG	49	43	37	44	50	45	58	38	39	48
Av Team FG	64	55	59	59	60	58	80	69	64	70
Av Opp FG	67	60	48	60	74	62	65	41	49	52
Av Match Cnrs	15.0	12.8	12.3	13.6	11.3	10.8	9.2	9.7	10.5	10.4
Av Team Cnrs	8.0	6.7	5.6	7.0	6.9	6.2	4.2	4.3	5.5	5.8
Av Opp Cnrs	7.0	6.2	6.6	6.6	4.5	4.6	5.0	5.4	5.0	4.6