Stats / Bettorlogic / 19 March 2009 / Leave a comment

Fresh from a 4-0 drubbing of Blackburn and an ill-tempered win over Hull in the FA Cup, Arsenal travel to St James' Park, a stadium that has not been a happy hunting ground for them in recent times. Bettorlogic talk us through it. Best bet: Back the draw @ [3.85].

Match Odds

Arsenal have broken into the top four for the first time this year. Newcastle on the other hand could find themselves in the relegation zone for the first time in 2009 by the time this match kicks off, with the two sides below them playing at home earlier in the day.

The Tyne-Tees region has not been a happy hunting ground for Arsene Wenger's side, with just two wins in 10 league games since the start of 2005/06 (W2-D5-L3) -- as well as two wins from their last 10 league fixtures at St. James' (W2-D6-L2). More generally, they are W3-D4-L0 in the away component of their league-high 15-game unbeaten run and have gone W4-D3-L1 against the current bottom-half sides this season.

Newcastle have lost only two of their last 11 home games but both of those were against the Big Four -- part of a W0-D1-L5 record at home for them since the start of last season, in which they have conceded 18 goals. They have shown some progress against the league's better sides, going W1-D4-L2 against the current top half -- compared to a W2-D2-L6 mark against the top-half finishers last season.

Newcastle's home record against the Big Four is the only thing which suggests the Arsenal win might be too big, though their [1.77] price looking perhaps a touch short overall. With both sides drawing a lot of games recently -- five from eight at home for Newcastle and four from six on the road for the Gunners -- the stalemate may be the best bet at [3.85].

Correct score

2-2 and the 2-1 defeat (4/14 and 3/14, respectively) account for half of the scorelines at St. James' Park this season, with three of the 2-2 draws coming in their seven games against the top half. There has been no common scoreline in Newcastle's recent home games against the Big Four, although six of the last 10 versions of this fixture finished 0-0 (three) or 1-1 (three).

Three of Arsenal's eight games at bottom-half teams this season have resulted in 3-1 wins and those looking to back Arsenal might want to bear in mind that only five of their 16 away victories since the start of last season have been to nil. The 3-1 is, in fact, the joint-most common score for them in that time, alongside the 1-1 draw, which happened on six occasions, and both may be worth a small stake at [8.2] and [16.5].

HT/FT

All eight of the Gunners' games at clubs in the bottom half of the table this season have had the same result at the final whistle as at half-time, making the W/W (4/8 this season, 8/18 since the beginning of the last one) the stand out selection.

Other than a poor first-half showing (leading at the interval against only Stoke and West Brom) there has been little consistency in Newcastle's performances in this market at home this season and this market therefore looks best avoided.

Newcastle clean sheet

Newcastle's home defensive record is the third worst in the division with only three clean sheets, although two of them have come against Arsenal's closest rivals, Villa and Everton. The Magpies have conceded at least two in five of their last six at home to the Big Four, while Arsenal have failed to score in only five of their 33 away games since the start of last season, making the home clean sheet anything but appealing.

Arsenal clean sheet

While the Gunners have failed to score only five times in that period, they have also kept just eight clean sheets themselves -- good for only the ninth-best record in the division. Newcastle have scored in all but one of their 14 home games this season as well as in four of their last six when hosting the Big Four, so 'No' looks much too big at [1.65].