The Pacman v The Boz: Will Ronaldo finish the season as topscorer?

Premier League / Gary Boswell / 01 April 2009 / Leave a Comment

Betting.betfair.com football editor Jamie "The Pacman" Pacheco goes head-to-head with Gary "The Boz" Boswell as they get to the bottom of whether Cristiano Ronaldo will successfully defend his crown as the Premier League's topscorer.

Lay Ronaldo says Gary Boswell

Cristiano Ronaldo was totally dominant in the 2008 Top Goalscorer market. A reflection that he was at that time heading towards being one of those footballers that appear in the game every now and then and become - to their opposition - unplayable. Johann Cruyff, Diego Maradona, Zinedine Zidane - not worth betting against - such was their dominance of any game they played in when at their footballing peak.

Ronaldo was going that way. The spring for headed goals added to the wicked long range shooting and the fact that he was part of a team that could cut open any defence at will. You'd have thought he was an absolute certainty for the Golden Boot again this season.

But that was then and this is now. With nine games to go, he's two off Anelka and only tied with Gerrard. That makes him an interesting proposition to Lay in the 2009 market at [3.45] with so many others around him you can fancy to steal the show.

My main reason for Laying Ronaldo to regain the boot is my reading of his body language. Throughout last season - in his dominance - the cocky smile and swagger were firmly on show 90% of the time. I've often clocked him this season looking like the guy who just bit into a lemon. Is he happy? Is his football a free expression of his inner peace? I think not. Privy to the internal workings of the Old Trafford dressing room I am not but observer of human nature I most certainly am and if he is currently playing with 100% bonhomie and commitment to his manager then I'm a Dutchman. Which I ain't.

Ferguson has history of course. Jaap Stam (he is a Dutchman!), David Beckham, Juan Sebastian Veron come to mind. All players who hit stinking patches of form at United and who thrived again as soon as they were gone.

When eye to eye with Fergie is in doubt, I see it manifesting itself in substandard performance on the pitch. There was no secret that Ronaldo wanted away at the end of last season. Is everyone convinced that deep down he doesn't still feel that way?

The biggest difference in the Golden Boot is the degree of competition this time round. I price Ronaldo at minimum [5.0] on the simple basis that there are four others I consider to have equal chance of prevailing.

Peter Crouch - currently on 11 - at [44.0], and with Bolton and the Baggies next up, is the value bet whilst the guy who surprisingly looks like the unplayable goalscorer of this season is Gerrard [5.5] who is also in the team who are coming to rampant form at the right moment.

Robinho is still within striking distance on 11 and is unquestionably the most unplayable player in the Premiership this season when he wants to be and the wild card is Kevin Davies who - like Crouch - has opposition coming up that he can be fancied to score against. He is a massive price at [100.0].

I'll happily take those four - with 2 goal leader Anelka as my buffer - to Lay The LemonKid as short as [3.45].

Back Ronaldo says Jamie Pacheco

Well-argued points raised by Gary Boswell, as ever. Ronaldo has not quite been the player he was last season but show me a player who can perform like that for two seasons running and I'll show you the spaceship that brought him to planet earth, because no human being has ever done it. Well, except for Maradona at Napoli and he managed to jump higher than Peter Shilton to head in Argentina's first against England in 1986 despite only being 5ft 5, so he can't have been human.

It's testament to the Lemonkid's ability that despite missing the first five matches of the season through injury (plus a further one through suspension) and now playing in a deeper role than last year, he is still only within two goals of being the league's top scorer. And come the end of the season, he'll be top so get backing him at [3.25] whilst you can.

For starters, you can pretty much guarantee he'll start every Premier League match until the end of the season. Unlike the brittle Steven Gerrard - his aforementioned operation at the start of the season aside - the guy doesn't get injured nor does he require as much recovery time after demanding matches. Why? Because apart from being arguably the most talented player in the league, he's also right up there as one of the fittest and least injury-prone and the more matches he plays, the more chances he has of scoring.

And following on from that the more set-pieces fall on his lap, the more chances of goals. And Man Utd's number seven has first dibs on free-kicks and penalties for the Reds. And as we've seen over the years, refs need little encouragement to award those to Sir Alex Ferguson's side, particularly at Old Trafford. Of all the players Gary identified as rivals, only Gerrard and Robinho are trusted with free-kick and penalty duties.

And I'm happy to dimiss Robinho's chances at the off. People talk about Steve Harmison getting homesick but at least that's true of the Durham paceman only when he goes overseas; Robinho is poor whenever he plays away from the Eastlands and goes missing in most of the big games wherever they're played. As for Peter Crouch, he may score his fair share of Portsmouth's goals (11 out of 32) but only 6 teams in the Premier League have scored fewer goals than Pompey overall, meaning they simply don't create enough chances for him to capitalise on.

One of the oldest principles of the English Legal system is that "possession is 9/10 of the law" and that puts [3.25] joint-favourite Anelka in with a real shout as he tops the table on 15, two more than Ronaldo and Gerrard. All well and good but since Hiddink's arrival, Anelka is being played upfront alongside Drogba rather than as the focal point of Chelsea's attack. The team has benefited from this but the goals have dried up for the Big Sulk with only one goal in his last five appearances in all competitions. Then there's the fact he's out injured for the next two weeks.

So we're left with Gerrard, the [5.4] third-favourite. He's got a lot going for him as he finds himself in a rich vein of goalscoring form, playing in an advanced position and on penalty duty. But I feel that once again Liverpool will find that the Champions League will be their best chance of silverware and that he'll be spared for a few of the latter league games once Benitez realises that the Premier League will once again stay at Old Trafford. If Ronaldo is the Lemonkid, then make lemonade by backing him.