Premier League / Jamie "The Pacman" Pacheco / 17 August 2010 / 1 Comments

Jamie Pacheco and Gary Boswell go head-to-head once more, this time looking at whether Manchester United, priced up at 1.7, will finish in the Premier League's top two this season...

Why Manchester United will finish in the top two at [1.70] by Gary Boswell

Backing Manchester United at [1.65] to finish in this season's Premiership top two is not my usual kind of bet. I'm usually looking for reasons to oppose the odds-on shots and at first glance I thought maybe there was ammunition this season to shoot United down. They relied very heavily on Wayne Rooney's goals last season and after the shocker he showed us in South Africa, some credibility to the theory that he will not return to this domestic season at his best - the sort of form that had him labelled a world class superstar last year.

How did that ability turn into jelly and the superstar become the dolt who couldn't even trap the ball in the African heat? Standing with the real United fans at a recent FC United friendly, a lifelong devotee explained that United superstars are designed never to shine at World Cups. He cited George Best, Duncan Edwards, Dennis Law, Eric Cantona, Ryan Giggs. He even threw in Cristiano Ronaldo, Patrice Evra and David Beckham and then spookily pointed to how Diego Forlan was a superstar in the tournament just gone - now that he is no longer a United player. I hadn't formed the words of the question "Bobby Charlton is an exception?" before he pointed at how Alf Ramsey substituted him against Germany in 1970 and immediately triggered the catastrophic 'defeat from the jaws of victory'.

Rooney will show none of that imbecilic play for United he assured me and sure enough, back in the United shirt at the Community Shield game, Rooney instantly does the world class bit again. And drops it three days later back in an England shirt against Hungary?

Alex Ferguson has it lined up to Rooney's strengths? Might be as simple as that. I do believe there is something Mr Ferguson knows about football that we journos and hacks can only guess at.

No need for me to spout stats to back that statement up. His personal CV is pretty impressive! Ferguson finds a way.

Manchester United did look frail at times last season. Michael Owen and Dimitar Berbatov as the back-up goalscorers to Rooney? It didn't stop them finishing in the top two again and with a ten point cushion over third place. That four team mini league that has existed for ten years at the top of the Premier League just became a two team mini league for me. More for Arsenal and Liverpool's retrograde than United's progress perhaps but I see nothing in this season's line-ups to suggest a change in that. Whatever the others do, Ferguson finds a way to top it.

Top two for the past five seasons. Last time they missed top two, golden boot boys were Thierry Henry, Robert Pires and Jimmy Hasselbaink. Seems like a lifetime ago! Only three times outside top two in the past ten seasons and what position those three years? Answer, third. You are getting [1.65] that they won't finish third this year perhaps. [1.5] would be my price for that so I consider [1.7] value (just about).You might consider posting [1.72] which is my arithmetic preference.

Where are the chinks that mean United won't do as well as last year? The goalkeeper's getting old? He's still the best in the division. The back four creaks? Fail to re-sign Nemanja Vidic and I might want to lay but he's back in the groove and he sorts them out. The Glazers are busy destroying the finances of the club from the inside? Well, that's a maybe if we believe all we read and certainly you'd think failure to sell full quota of season tickets was sign of dissent in the ranks - fan wise.

Brand United has been there before however and conquered it. If the team keep up the work on the pitch that blew Chelsea away last weekend, I've no doubt they will do so again.

I made a vow a few years back not to oppose United - despite their short prices - whilst Alex Ferguson remains at the helm. I stand by that. They'll finish top two again this year and [1.65] is a reasonable price.

Why Manchester United won't finish in the Top Two this season at [1.70] by Jamie Pacheco

As Gary points out, Manchester United have only finished outside the top two on three occasions in the last 10 years. If you take the last five, the stats paint an even brighter picture for would-be backers; they finished in the top two every time.

They've probably got a better squad this year than they did last time round. Buying the "little pea" Javier Hernandez prior to the World Cup was shrewd business for a player whose value went up by at least 25% on the back of some impressive performances. Chris Smalling will provide extra cover for the perennially-injured Rio Ferdinand and, if Monday night's win over Newcastle is anything to go by, the "Paul Scholes and Ryan Giggs aren't getting any younger" argument doesn't wash.

Why then am I opposing Manchester United for a top two finish? Well, it's purely price-based and here's why. In my eyes Chelsea are just as strong as they were last year, if not stronger. The departed duo of Deco and Michael Ballack were dead wood, the wrong side of thirty and probably played by the manager from time to time just to go some way to justifying their huge wages. For a player (Ballack) whose big-selling point throughout his career were his goals from midfield, a return of 15 league goals from 115 appearances in his time at Chelsea isn't great and if he wasn't scoring goals and he wasn't creating goals (Frank Lampard was), breaking up play (Jon Obi Mikel) or acting as an all-action midfielder (Michael Essien) then I'm not entirely sure what he was doing. Joe Cole is a fine player and he'll have a strong season at Liverpool but he didn't fit into Carlo Ancelotti's 4-3-3 so perhaps his departure was for the best.

Yossi Benayoun will add something a little different and as a Benfica fan I've seen plenty of Ramires, whose hard-running and versatility will be a priceless asset. For my money, Chelsea are nailed on for a top two finish and if I'm right it makes Manchester United a [1.65] chance in a straight shoot-out against "the field" for the other remaining spot.

It's a big ask for Tottenham to really push them but there's a lot to be said for a happy and stable dressing room and for a manager who knows his best 11 and plays it most weeks .Spurs can also call on Jermaine Jenas, Roman Pavlyuchenko, Carlo Cudicini and Tom Huddlestone to step in when needed. Don't discount them just yet.

Manchester City are of course the exact opposite. Roberto Mancini doesn't have a clue who his best 11 is (except that the wonderful Carlos Tevez always figures in it) but if, and this is a big if, he picks a system that suits his resources, sticks with it and rotates the personnel when needed, rather than just for the sake of it, they could be a real threat. Say what you like about the work-rate and attitude of Emmanuel Adebayor, the petulance of Mario Balotelli, the injury record of Roque Santa Cruz or the inconsistency of a Shaun Wright-Phillips, but all four of are genuine match winners. David Silva may take a couple of months to settle but he's class whilst Yaya Toure will add the steel they lacked last year. If it all clicks, City can prove the doubters wrong.

Arsenal are like the long-distance runner who doesn't have the final spurt left in him. They sure as hell have everything else so could this be the season they learn to save something for the final strait? Liverpool are re-building but having twice performed miracles at Fulham (the relegation escape and the Europa Cup run) who's to say Roy Hodgson can't perform another?

Manchester United look very strong but there's enough strength in the field to oppose them at that sort of price.

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Comments (1)

1. mohammed | 17 August 2010

   ofcourse chelsea seem a strong team zs season but am sure their play lacks consistency! N tottenham ya may b they'l run 4 3rd place not more than that,n city,city didn bring anything with its last year squad z best squad ever! fyi 4get arsenal ,so manutd wil win its 19 cup n writes a new history in epl.

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