The Betfair Contrarian: Why Manchester City won't finish top four

Premier League / The Betfair Contrarian / 28 July 2010 / 16 Comments

Will Roberto Mancini lead City to glory or failure?

"The theory that Manchester City have an edge over teams like Arsenal and Tottenham because they don’t have the preoccupation of Champions League football is flawed, as the Europa League is even more demanding, and Roberto Mancini intends to go far in it."

How can a team that has never qualified for the Champions League be third favourites to finish in the top four? That's the question that has stumped the Contrarian; he's adamant that Manchester City are destined to disappoint once again and is excitedly laying them at incredible odds of [1.57]...

...and here's why...

They haven't made it for decades
The last time that Manchester City finished in the top four of the top flight was way back in 1978, and the landscape was so vastly different back then that Nottingham Forest were crowned champions despite coming third in the second tier in the previous campaign. It's very rare for a top-four vacancy to open, but when there was one in 2009-10, as Liverpool endured their worst season in 11 years, the Citizens proved incapable of seizing it. Even with two matches to go they controlled their own fate, needing only victory at home to Tottenham and a win against a West Ham side with nothing to play for, yet they collected just a point from those games.

It will be even harder this time
The argument that City squandered a massive opportunity is supported by two daunting statistics: just eight teams have secured top-four finishes in the last 14 years, while Spurs were the first side to break up the "Big Four" in five years. The Lilywhites now have the confidence that evaded them before, having shown that they can hang with the elite, and there's absolutely no chance that Liverpool will struggle as much under Roy Hodgson. Over the last 39 seasons, the three-year Graeme Souness-inspired spell between 1991 and 1994 was the only time that Liverpool have spent more than a year away from the top four.

The Champions League argument is flawed
The theory that Manchester City have an edge over teams like Arsenal and Tottenham because they don't have the preoccupation of Champions League football is flawed, as the Europa League is even more demanding, and Roberto Mancini intends to go far in it. If City make the final - and they are [7.2] favourites to win the whole thing - they will play 17 times, whereas if the Gunners suffer another quarter-final exit from the premier competition, they would only play ten games. Second-round elimination for Spurs would involve the same number. It's also worth remembering that City had no European distractions last year, but unlike Tottenham failed to make that advantage count.

A large camp is an unhappy one
Manchester City's squad looks absolutely huge at the moment, and while there is talk of players being offloaded, it's unlikely they'll get rid of every potentially disgruntled bench-sitter over the next month, which doesn't bode well for team spirit. The club appear to be approaching the rebuilding process in the wrong way too. Midfield is the area where they look most bloated yet James Milner is still pursued, while there are reports that Craig Bellamy, Emmanuel Adebayor, Robinho and Roque Santa Cruz could all leave, which would leave them short up front, even if Mario Balotelli does arrive.

Mancini still has a lot to prove
Mark Hughes was sacked because he wasn't on course to reach targets, however Mancini hardly fared much better - they were the sixth-best Premier League performers from his first game on Boxing Day onwards. His policy of playing three defence-minded midfielders was baffling and not exactly successful, his intensive training program left player of the year Carlos Tevez frustrated and he supposedly doesn't get on with another star performer, Craig Bellamy. Despite a brilliant record in Serie A, the Italian has yet to shine in England, and another mid-season sacking isn't unimaginable.

Comments (16)

1. HeavyRiffs | 28 July 2010

   You'll eat your words, top four beckons...

2. Neil Crosby | 28 July 2010

   I wondered why the author of this article could get some of his facts so wrong. Then I realised he works for a betting shop. Nuff said!

3. Russ | 28 July 2010

   What a silly article. Surely its would not be unreasonable to think any team that came 5th might be able to raise its game to 4th the following season and if that team is Manchester City with all its spending power then it certainly wouldn't be unreasonable.

4. Russ | 28 July 2010

   Oh and City had to playe even more Europa league games last season than this season so they will have an easier season this year

5. Shahzad | 28 July 2010

   do you know what are you saying???....last season mcfc finished 5th...just 3 point behind spurs...if you looked at the other clubs...only chelsea has better team than us....mancini did well at inter and will also do well at mcfc...you people talk about history....that pisses me off...history wont make a good team...look at the liverpool...man u started winning after 90's...and chelsea is just a new superpower...

6. muz | 28 July 2010

   your 1.57 odds don't backup your bold claims really do they? get your balls out of the bath water if your so confident.

7. Danny | 28 July 2010

   1.57 is hardly the odds of a convinced man, when you considor we have higher odds to win the Europa league and we are favourite for the whole thing. Some good points there but I think until you see the 25-man squad there's not much room for criticism about the squad, regardless it's going to be one of the best. Yes there may be alot of good players not playing all the time but as you've stated, there plenty of games to go round, a small squad for fewer games is in a similar position.

8. James Vickers | 28 July 2010

   The only reason Man City didn't finish in the top four last season was because they drew games they should have won, i'm convinced that Mancini will get City to win at least 3 or four of those games and would expect them to finish in the top four minimum.

9. Geoff | 28 July 2010

   Full of 'if's, buts and maybe's' Well maybe its a good time to stick your comments on your bedroom wall and wait and see what happens first.
   Never before has a team had so much funding and whether you like it or not at some stage in the next year or two Premier and Championship trophys are going to come big time even if not this year. So relax wait and ENJOY.
   

10. Dirty Eddie | 28 July 2010

    Your talking nonsense in my opinion and your vierws are bias. Mancini with his successful record has nothing to prove whatsoever.
    Man City will finish top three and here is a word for you to look up in the dictionary - JEALOUS.

11. Mick | 28 July 2010

    More Man City press bashing from "Betfair" pround sponsors of Man Utd. They must be getting scared!

12. Mick | 28 July 2010

    Obviously from the above analysis City has very little chance of making the top four so lets see some odds from Betfair to reflect this how about 10 to 1 it may be worth a flutter?

13. Mick | 28 July 2010

    Why dont you do an article on why Utd wont win the league? or is that too controversial for the sponsorship team?

14. Marc | 29 December 2010

    I've bookmarked this page and just cannot wait to laugh at it in 5 months. Nothing more than "moronic" can describe this article.

15. Jon | 29 December 2010

    I bet those odds have been lowered now that your crystal ball forecasts have so far been rendered as a complete pile of rubbish!

16. Sportsmagic | 29 December 2010

    Who said Man City has advantage over Arsenal and Tottenham. Very funny!!
    I agreed Man city missed a very huge opportunity when lost against Everton at home, but I don't see them loosing any other game in the next 8 games. While Man U and Chelsea are in big big trouble. Both are likely to draw so many games in future unlike MCity. Arsenal with their current full squad are unlikely to be beaten by any team in EPL. I think City has advantage over Man U and Chelsea. Please don't be deceived with Man U having two games in hand. Win few and draw many will cripple their chances of lifting the trophy while Chelsea is currently at their best. They need luck to win games. This is truly their best. Every player in Chelsea including the manager is doing their best to win, but is not easy for any team in today's league as good players cannot be in one team. Chelsea is like Rooney overrated team, overrated player.