Premier League Stats: Middlesbrough v Manchester United

Premier League / Bettorlogic / 30 April 2009 / Leave a Comment

Gareth Southgate's men will be fighting for their lives at the Riverside on Saturday and, with one eye on their Champions League semi-final, could Manchester United stutter on the big four's least happy North East hunting ground? Best Bet: Back 1-1 @ 9.2 and 0-1 @ 7.0 (split stakes)

Match Odds

After being outclassed at the Emirates last weekend, Middlesbrough's quest for survival continues against another Big Four side with the visit of the champions to the Riverside. Middlesbrough have been something of a bogey side for United, with the Red Devils not winning back-to-back league matches against them since 2001 and having a worse win rate in that time (W6-D4-L4) against only Arsenal, Chelsea and Man City.

While 'Boro were demolished 5-0 here by Chelsea in their first game hosting the Big Four this season, they have lost only two of their subsequent 13 home league games -- including a draw with Arsenal and a win over Liverpool -- and are unbeaten at home in 2009. Indeed, in the last four years they have lost only three of their 15 home games against the Big Four, going W3-D5-L3 under Southgate.

The task facing Man Utd then, is sterner than the league table might suggest. However, they have had an extreme split in their away record this season -- failing to win at any of the six sides immediately below them but going W9-D1-L0 against those currently in eighth or below. Over the previous two seasons they won three quarters (W15-D3-L2) of their games at bottom-half finishers -- including 10 of 12 (W10-D0-L2) at the bottom six -- which would imply value in their [1.49] win price.

While United's record in these games is predictably strong, 'Boro's recent resilience at home and, in particular, against the Big Four makes it hard to plump for the away win and we would avoid the result market.

Correct score

The 0-0 and 1-1 draws (both 4/17) account for nearly half of the scores at the Riverside this season, with the 1-1 and 2-0 win (both 2/8) most common against current top-half sides. 1-1 is also their most common scoreline hosting the Big Four under Southgate (3/11), with the 2-1 win (2/11) the only other score to occur more than once.

Half (5/10) of United's games at the teams from outside the top seven this season have finished
1-0, while no score dominates their recent form against bottom-half finishers (2-1 tops with 4/20 over the past two seasons).

The 1-0 away win ([7.0]) and 1-1 ([9.2]) both warrant consideration here, either with split stakes or as longer-priced options to backing or laying United.

HT/FT

United's first-half record at bottom-half finishers over the past two seasons is unimpressive (W6-D11-L3), recording more D/Ws (eight) than W/Ws (six). This season they have had one more W/W (four) than D/W (three) at the current bottom-half sides but the prevailing trend is that for those backing the away win, there is more value to be had in taking United to D/W ([4.6]).
Thanks mostly to four goalless draws, the D/D (5/17) has been the most common double result at the Riverside this season, with that also the most common (4/11) at home to the Big Four under Southgate.

Middlesbrough clean sheet

Middlesbrough's 2-0 win over Liverpool was only their second clean sheet in 11 games hosting the Big Four since Southgate took charge, although they have recorded four in their last six home matches.

United have failed to score three times on the road this season --all against teams currently in the top half -- and they have done so in only two of their 20 at bottom-half finishers over the past two seasons.

Man Utd clean sheet

United have kept just one clean sheet in their last eight league games and none in their last three on the road. They have blanked five of the seven bottom-half teams away this season but have conceded in the last two such matches. 'Boro have scored in eight of Southgate's 11 games at home to the Big Four, though they have failed to score as often as any side in the league at home this season (7/17).