Premier League Betting: Take the longview with end of season multiples

Premier League / Andrew Atherley / 22 April 2009 / Leave a comment

Alan Shearer has earmarked Newcastle's home games as the key to their Premier League survival but their form at St James Park is equally as bad as their away record. Andrew Atherley explains why bettors should oppose them in a late season multiple.

If you can find value in more than one football match, there is a school of thought that you should capitalise on your advantage by combining your bets on those matches - that's where Betfair Multiples come in.

There is a wide range of choice on the Multiples coupons, and at this stage of the season following the longer-term trends, rather than a quick burst of form or a perceived need to win, could pay dividends.

Nowhere will this be more so this weekend than at St James' Park, where Newcastle tackle the first of three home games that caretaker boss Alan Shearer has earmarked as the key to Premier League survival. Their opponents on Monday night are Portsmouth, who are in the relegation dogfight too but have stronger form claims than the odds might suggest.

Newcastle are [2.03] in the early betting, but they remain a team to be wary of even though their need for points grows more desperate with each passing week. As well as being third-bottom of the Premier League, Newcastle occupy the same position in the home table, with just four wins from 16 games.

The problem for Newcastle's bid to make the most of their remaining games at St James' Park - against Portsmouth and Middlesbrough in particular - is that their home form is little better against bottom-half teams, with a record from seven games of won two, drawn three, lost two.

Portsmouth are showing more signs of life than Newcastle, having lost only once (against Chelsea) in eight league games under Paul Hart. They are unbeaten in three away games and overall this season they have lost only one out of six on the road against teams in the bottom half of the table.

Pompey have drawn four of those six games and Hart is likely to set them up to be hard to beat again, knowing that a draw would maintain their seven-point advantage over Newcastle. There is always the possibility of Portsmouth snatching a goal, however, and that would make life even more difficult for Newcastle, who are winless in 20 league games this season when conceding first.

All in all, given Newcastle's low home win rate and Portsmouth's low away defeat rate, the hosts look well worth opposing for the win. Laying them at [2.24] is one leg of the multiple.

Another solid option on the trends is backing Fulham at [1.75] for a home win over Stoke on Saturday. Everybody is aware by now that, under Roy Hodgson, Fulham have made Craven Cottage a fortress again, and currently they rank seventh on home form with nine wins from 16 games.

Seven of those nine wins have come in 11 home games against the teams currently below them in the table, which indicates that Fulham's odds might underestimate their chance against Stoke. And especially so when considering that Stoke have taken the same number of away points (seven) this season as rock-bottom West Brom.

Stoke's only away win was at West Brom and they are winless in nine, with six defeats, away to teams above them in the table. Another stat against Stoke is that they have lost 11 out of 13 when conceding on the road, while Fulham have scored in 13 out of 16 at home, winning nine of those 13 scoring games.

More speculative, but still with plenty to recommend them as good value on the trends, is Aston Villa away to Bolton on Saturday. Villa are favourites at [2.47], with the odds no doubt influenced by their declining form in recent weeks.

In Villa's current winless run, however, six of their eight league opponents have been higher placed than Bolton, and Martin O'Neill's team are open to improvement now that they are faced with a drop in class. Five of Villa's six away defeats have been against teams ranked in the top six on home form (Bolton are 14th), with the only blip being November's 2-0 defeat at Newcastle.

The defeat at Newcastle was one of four on the road where Villa were shut out, but they have an excellent record when scoring with 10 wins out of 12. Bolton have kept only four clean sheets in 16 home games and all four were against teams in the bottom four overall or, in the case of Manchester City, in the bottom four on away form.

Bolton have won five and lost seven when conceding at home, but the defeat rate is much higher (six out of eight) against top-half teams. The low draw rate in the records of both teams makes laying the draw an option, but if there is to be a winner the trends point most strongly to Villa and they are a good-value third leg for the multiple.