Premier League Betting Preview: Liverpool v Newcastle

Premier League / Richard Walker / 02 May 2009 / Leave a Comment

Time is running out for Newcastle United and with Liverpool refusing to give up on the title, you'd expect another miserable afternoon for Alan Shearer and co. Not so, says Richard Walker. Best Bet: Back Under 2.5 goals @ [2.38].

With Steven Gerrard returning to a near-fully fit squad, there's no way Newcastle can stop Liverpool at Anfield is there? Logically no - but as I've been saying of late, need drives action and right now Alan Shearer's mob are needy.

And while Rafa Benitez is doing a great job of bluffing everyone - Kopites especially - into thinking the league is his number one priority, it's not. He knows it, we know it. He's proved that in previous years. And he knows Man United just aren't going to slip up often enough for Liverpool to seriously fancy their chances.

He must still be reeling at the fact that this is the only competition left open to them so they're now a side with nothing to keep back in reserve. But does that increase the pressure on them? I say it does.

So, at what looks to me a ludicrously short [1.29] (when you consider United are around 0.4 bigger at Boro), lay Liverpool without the associated risk of putting yourself out of Betfair business. Of course I'm not saying Liverpool can't win - I'm trying to find the value plays and that's my opinion. The Draw is [6.2] to back and I'll be dabbling there too I should think. Newcastle are [13.5] just to prevail in the Match Odds - how the once-mighty have fallen, eh?

Now as you know, I'm not one too influenced by stats, trends of tradition, however I can reasonably assume that all the pointers here are for a high-scoring encounter. That's because I feel the [2.38] to back about Under 2.5 goals should not be missed. Granted, Shearer's side are no defensive diamonds, but they'll be packing the midfield for this one and - even if beaten - I could well envisage it being only 1-0 or 2-0, with Benitez disrupting play by hauling off his big guns to keep the as fresh as possible for his title tilt.

Shearer has openly targeted the home games as the ones he feels will drive United's survival bid hardest. And while the disappointing Pompey stalemate will be fresh in the mind, I think it's fair to assume that he'll see a point at Anfield as a great effort. Expect caution enough to take advantage of those who're reckoning on an early home goal by laying the 0-10 minutes period in the First Goal odds to a [3.75] liability.

The Draw (HT) at [2.92] should merit consideration, a much richer price than it normally is to back. The more markets I look at, the clearer a picture I have of what Betfairians think will happen on Sunday lunch-time. Liverpool/Liverpool HT/FT is lower than evens at [1.84] - another lay possibility (?) - though Draw/Liverpool looks to have a bit of meat on the bone at [4.7].

I may be out on a limb here but I'm not devoid of common sense; so stuff like backing the returning Steven Gerrard To Score at [2.2] could be a good move. Fernando Torres is priced at [1.92] in that market - a reflection of both his quality, form and the opposition.

You can't always put all your eggs in one basket on Betfair. I have in mind a cagey attempt by the Magpies to steal a point on Merseyside. They might not so, like me, whatever your fancy make sure you're well covered too! Turning a profit's what it's all about...we can't get rich on every game!