Premier League Betting Preview: Liverpool v Chelsea

Premier League / Richard Walker / 01 February 2009 / Leave a Comment

The layers know it's tight when the Big Four face off and though the prices are skinny, Richard Walker agrees with them.

Chelsea will still have that 3-0 dismantling at the hands of Manchester United in the back of their minds when they travel to Liverpool for one of these often over-hyped 'Big Four' clashes on Sunday afternoon.

I say that not because United are Liverpool are particularly comparable to United, but because Luiz Felipe Scolari's tactics have come under increasing scrutiny and there's every chance he'll play not to get beaten rather than with the expansive, attack-minded formation he prefers.

That's why I make the [3.25] about The Draw a good thing for this one. Whether it be a goalless draw [9.0] or a 1-1 stalemate [7.0] - for I don't see a glut of goals - I reckon Benitez, who is famed for rather-not-lose than all-out-for-the-win gameplans, and Scolari will be shaking hands after a stalemate.

Hosts Liverpool are marginal favourites, [2.6] to back, while this current somewhat enigmatic Chelsea are a [3.15] shot. Lay Chelsea to a [3.2] liability would be the other way I might go if I felt less decisive getting towards game time.

Other Correct Score options, should you favour a Reds' win for example, include [8.2] about 1-0 to Liverpool and [12.5] for 2-1 to the home team. Myself, I see a binary scoreline with few real risks being taken in trying to open the game up. Unders is the firm 2.5 goals market favourite at [1.62] to back and, while short, I can see the appeal. Overs is a [2.6] chance - as long as I've seen before kick-off in a Premier League match for some time.

Neither side has much genuine news in terms of selection decisions. Xabi Alonso, Albert Riera and Dirk Kuyt were all rested in the week and should return, as will the star pair of Fernando Torres and Steven Gerrard who were hauled off before Wigan got their leveller the other night. Ricardo Carvalho (hamstring) misses out for the Blues but that's about it; certainly nothing game-swaying unlike, say, the comings and goings at Newcastle in the earlier televised Sunday game.

Having nailed my colours to the low or no goals mast and the fact I feel if there's a winner it's more likely the home side, backing a Liverpool clean sheet looks a tempting proposition at odds of [2.76]. To then back Steven Gerrard to score in a big game like this - as he so often does - at [3.85] look like two nice prices that sit together well in a match portfolio. Funny enough, Frank Lampard's the same odds to register for the visitors - but you'll be more interested in that if you think the Blues have what it takes to continue their previously excellent away form.

There's that perception still hanging around from Benitez v Mourinho Champions League encounters that Liverpool seem to hold an upper hand over Chelsea. More recent head-to-heads have somewhat dispelled that myth although the Reds did impress when winning at Stamford Bridge earlier this term.

That was when both teams were in flying form, however. Both now are clinging on to the coat-tails of Manchester United. And, while they'll both say a win is vital, to not lose three points to a rival is just as key to these two managers.

Best Bets: back The Draw @ [3.25]; back Steven Gerrard To Score @ [3.85]; back Yes to Liverpool clean sheet @ [2.76].