Premier League Betting: Liverpool v Birmingham City

Premier League / Dan Fitch / 08 November 2009 / Leave a Comment

With one gesture, Torres sums up Liverpool's season.

Recommended Bets: Under 2.5 goals @ 2.24;
Lay Liverpool to be winning half time/full time @ 2.16;
Back Liverpool to win 1-0 @ 8.0

With Liverpool currently in such poor form, could Birmingham City surprise them? Dan 'The Betting Man' Fitch thinks that it will all come down to whether Gerrard and Torres are available. Best Bet: Under 2.5 goals @ [2.24].

The rumours suggest that Liverpool can scarcely afford to sack Rafa Benitez, but if their results continue to disappoint, the time may come when they can't afford not to.

Liverpool have won just once in their last eight games. Their Champions League ambitions are dangling by a thread and the domestic title already seems to be out of their grasp.

So what can they salvage from the season? At best, it would seem that Liverpool might hold off the challenge from Spurs and Manchester City to qualify for next season's Champions League and could pick up some silverware in the form of the FA Cup or the Europa League.

Whether that would be enough for Benitez to save his job is open to debate, especially after going so close to winning the title last season.

As ever, Liverpool's ambitions and Rafa's job rest upon the shoulders of Fernando Torres and Steven Gerrard. With those two in the team, Liverpool are a match for anyone. Without them they look very ordinary.

On Monday night at Anfield, Liverpool face a game against Birmingham City that looks more daunting now, than it did when the fixture list was printed.

Though they hover just out of the relegation zone, Birmingham are no easy pickings. They've already played Manchester United, Tottenham and Arsenal away from home and suffered no more than narrow defeat in any of these tough fixtures.

Last weekend they held out to claim a 0-0 draw against Manchester City and might have won all three points, had Shay Given not saved a James McFadden penalty.

Having also played Aston Villa this season and with Liverpool to come on Monday, Birmingham will have faced six of the current top seven in the league.

Given the daunting fixture list, Alex McLeish has every reason to be pleased with the job he's done and will fancy his side to avoid relegation. Birmingham are currently [2.86] for the drop.

McLeish has assembled a very experienced side, that includes such established names as Carr, Bowyer, Ferguson, Phillips and Carsley. They certainly should have the nous to avoid the drop, but a lack of goalpower could be their undoing.

The recent 2-1 win over Sunderland was the only time this season that Birmingham have scored more than once in a match. With Liverpool having only scored more than once in just one of their last eight games, the [2.24] available for under 2.5 goals looks generous.

Birmigham are likely to bring the on-loan Joe Hart back into their team, after he was ineligible to play against Manchester City. Barry Ferguson is suspended, while Garry O'Connor and Keith Fahey are both doubts.

For Liverpool, Torres and Gerrard have both been involved in light training, but the former is more likely to play than the latter. Carragher and Degan are both suspended, while Aurelio and Dossena are both likely to be injured. Martin Skrtel should return to the defence.

When the goalscorer markets open on Betfair closer to kick off, expect Torres to be priced at around [4.0] to score first and [1.8] anytime, with Gerrard [5.5] and [2.3], and Babel [8.0] and [3.2]. For Birmingham, Christian Benitez should be priced around [13.0] and [5.0].

Liverpool look much too short at [1.39], with the draw at [5.0] and Birmingham [11.5]. If the home side does win, I'd expect a narrow only a narrow victory and recommend laying Liverpool to be winning half time/full time at [2.16].

A 1-0 Liverpool win is [8.0] and I also like the look of Birmingham with +1.5 goals at [1.7]. I think Liverpool might scrape this, but another slip up certainly wouldn't surprise me.