Premier League Betting: Knowing your marathon runners from your sprinters

Premier League / Ralph Ellis / 17 August 2009 / Leave a Comment

Gareth Barry may prove to be Manchester City's most important summer signing for the way he binds the midfield together.

"Everton find themselves bottom, and are a tempting punt at 12.5 to still be there when the transfer window closes, especially if the Lescott affair continues to disrupt the club. Longer term, of course, they won’t have a problem."

As the likes of Wigan and West Ham got off to the best possible starts, Everton and Liverpool were amongst the teams who didn't. Ralph Ellis tells us why we should remember it's a marathon and certain clues are as important as results in predicting how everyone will do in the long run.

Okay, it's a marathon and not a sprint. We've all heard that so many times. But isn't it hard not to be dazzled by Usain Bolt? Or more particularly by the dramatic way Arsenal started the season with that 6-1 romp at Goodison Park?

And that's the problem when you're analysing the first day's football as a clue to what's going to happen for the rest of the season. To take that marathon analogy again, how do you tell the difference between the little Kenyan who started slowly but will run for 26 miles, and the bloke in the fluffy bunny suit who dashed off away to get himself picked up by the TV cameras?

Take Wigan, for instance. Only last week I was putting them down as relegation fodder, and then on Saturday I happened to be at Villa Park to watch Roberto Martinez's side play dazzling football. Hugo Rodallega took the eye for his spectacular volley, but Jordi Gomez was brilliant in midfield and Paul Scharner superb starting play at the back.

Am I wrong? Not necessarily, because there are problems to come. Scharner is already making waves because he doesn't want to stay in defence and would prefer to switch back into midfield where he operates for Austria. He'd like to join the exodus of players who've already left Wigan for riches elsewhere. They could be clear at the top after Tuesday when they are home to Wolves, but I wouldn't even fancy them lasting long enough to take the [40.0] for them to be leading the race at the end of August.

Last season Manchester United had only five points after four games. Liverpool had ten from the same opening spell, Arsenal nine and Chelsea eight. We all know how that ended up.

So what can you read into Liverpool being the only one of the big four - or the big five as it's now become - not to win on the opening day? (Apart from that you should have jumped at Betfair's special offer to refund a fiver if you backed them all for three points and it didn't happen!).

Rafa Benitez was raging at referee Phil Dowd for not giving at least one of two penalty appeals, and his assistant Sammy Lee got sent off for protesting about it. But then you can't blame Dowd for the way the Reds twice allowed Tottenham soft goals by defenders. Or for the fact they have let Xabi Alonso leave without a creative replacement. It's unquestionably left them vulnerable and is one of the reasons why the price for a new top four has slipped from the [2.02] I suggested backing it at, in to [1.9]. Spurs are one of the clubs trying to break through, but the performance wasn't convincing enough to make you think they will do more than show flashes of promise.

Manchester City's win at Blackburn underlined their status as genuine contenders, however. It was no surprise that Gareth Barry got the man of the match plaudits. Mark Hughes needed a consistent, stable backbone to support his flair midfielders and forwards and Barry is one of the players who will provide it. Hughes still wants to buy Joleon Lescott, and that saga will go on for the next two weeks.

Everton find themselves bottom, and are a tempting punt at [12.5] to still be there when the transfer window closes, especially if the Lescott affair continues to disrupt the club. Longer term, of course, they won't have a problem.

New boys Burnley and Wolves both got off to 2-0 defeats at Stoke and at home to West Ham respectively. Neither are going to find the step into the Premier League easy. Stoke's combination of Rory Delap's long throw and other set pieces, together with a bit of flair through Matthew Etherington, should keep them out of trouble again. The Hammers have a tough two weeks to survive, though, with pressure to sell players from their temporary Icelandic owners and rumours at the weekend that Gianfranco Zola won't stay if he's forced to let somebody like Matthew Upson leave. Don't be tempted by [7.4] for a top six finish whatever the optimism of the opening day.

Chelsea struggled to get their season going with what should have been a routine home win over Hull. New boss Carlo Ancelotti is clearly going to need time to settle down his plans for a diamond formation. But what he has got right is to have two-goal Didier Drogba and Nicolas Anelka playing together, up front. I've been asking for the last 18 months why no boss at Stamford Bridge has ever tried that unbelievably obvious tactic. It's not rocket science to play two world class forwards together in positions where they can score goals. But uniquely Chelsea now have Drogba [2.28] and Anelka [3.55] among the four favourites to be in the top four Premier League goalscorers. It suggests that as they settle they will have a real threat to justify their status as [3.05] favourites.

Then again, they started well last year, and look what happened. If United win at Burnley on Wednesday night they'll already be a point ahead of their first four games last year. If Arsenal are Usain Bolt, then United have proved, over and over again, they are Haile Gebrselassie.