Betfair Official Blog

Premiership

Premier League Betting: Chelsea v Man Utd Preview

Click here to view market

Man Utd travel to Stamford Bridge today, and if they win they are virtually guaranteed to retain their Premier League title. Richard Walker assesses the likelihood of that result, and the other possibilities.

I don't know if you, like me, feel that this game's been somewhat overlooked - coming as it does in between two monumental legs of two Champions League semi-finals now poised for high second-leg drama.

I'm not for a minute discounting this game's relevance or significance; perhaps there's just an underlying acceptance from the Blues that even if they do prevail on home turf at lunchtime today, United are barely likely to drop the requisite point or two at home to West Ham or at Wigan on the season's final day.

The goal difference difference, so to speak, means the genial Avram Grant's team need the Red Devils to slip up one more time in the last two matches - so drawing level on points, while a great mental step forward and an undoubted fillip - would probably only serve to galvanise Sir Alex Ferguson's men for those last couple of title-winning fixtures.

That all said, it's game on today even if we don't get treated to a week of the Sky Sports' graphics & stills team working us all up into a frenzy with another 'clever' title for the match. They haven't had time - and that's just my point, neither have the teams.

This game comes upon them three and four days after their respective semi-final first legs - and precedes the returns by three and four days respectively.

That's why I'm suggesting a draw here. To lose, never mind the Premier League points, would be a big morale-flattener for midweek - and if Chelsea have convinced themselves the title race is still on, they haven't convinced me. The Match Odds lack definition and that accurately reflects just how tight to call this is. My preference is priced at [3.15], a Stamford Bridge home win at [2.6] while an all-bar-the-maths title-securing away triumph is around [3.3].

I've confessed to being more a gut feeling than stats man before, but you can't ignore Chelsea's 100-plus game unbeaten home run in domestic competition. For me, the Match Odds pay respect to that - despite the absence of the Blues' talismanic midfielder Frank Lampard, alongside the likely return of the rock-like Nemanja Vidic to the United defence. Other runs and trends are largely irrelevant given it's the type of game that could well be settled by one controversial incident or a moment of individual brilliance.

So let's have some fun, shall we, looking at what else is on offer. Well for a start there's my old faithful of backing Cristiano Ronaldo in the To Score (at any time) market. His odds are about [2.94] and I'm drawn to him particularly because he'll want to make amends for that fluffed penalty in Barcelona. Michael Essien would be my one to include at a bigger price - he's about a [10.0] chance to notch and has popped up with goals in important games before.

First Goalscorer is a slightly tougher prospect, and I admit to always looking at To Score first anyway! Here Michael Essien registers [24.0] to back with Cristiano Ronaldo about the [7.0] mark. I'll plump - unimaginative as it may be - for him, perhaps even from the spot hey!
I can't decide about the Over/Under 2.5 goals market. In my mind's eye, I can see both a 1-1 and 2-2 draw being played out so here are the odds: Overs is [2.58] and Unders is [1.62].

Perhaps Overs in the 1.5 goals market should be for me, as I think [1.53] to back that is quite enticing. By the way, 1-1 is a [6.8] chance while 2-2, my cover if you will, would pay odds of around the [22.0] mark.

Have you availed of the Sending Off market before? It's a simple Yes or No answer and, while I can see tempers fraying towards the end, for me the [4.3] to back about 'Yes' is still not enough - however I don't know that [1.26] about a 'No' is either (!) - given that mild-mannered and relatively sensible ref Alan Wiley is in charge. Now had it been Rob Styles...!

So there we are. All's set fair and you'll want to back or lay upon your opinions. If it's still level with about 10 minutes left, expect the necessary Blue surge forward as I retreat to behind the settee hoping it remains all-square! Good luck.