Premier League Betting: Can Chelsea stop Liverpool without Cech?

Premier League / Andrew Atherley / 30 September 2009 / Leave a Comment

"Chelsea’s points average without Cech is higher, at 2.37, than the 2.17 with Cech in the starting line-up."

A tight game can usually be expected when Chelsea meet Liverpool but the Reds have been rattling them in recently and the Blues will be without their goalkeeper. So is Andrew Atherley anticipating goals?

Under 2.5 goals is sure to be popular when Chelsea host Liverpool on Sunday in the second big-four clash of the Premier League season, and backers will have the long-term stats in their favour.

In the early betting on Chelsea v Liverpool, under 2.5 goals is available to back at [1.78] and that might not be short enough. This fixture has a history of low scores, with 19 out of 24 under 2.5 goals, across all venues in all competitions since 2004/05 (the season Rafa Benitez took charge at Liverpool). That's a rate of 79% under 2.5 goals, equating to odds around [1.27].

The long-term run of low scores between the two sides is remarkable, though some may sense a shift after the two most recent clashes - in the Champions League quarter-finals last season - produced four goals and eight goals.

The broader stats of big-four clashes point to a low score being more likely, however. Since 2004/05, all league matches between the big four have produced 59% under 2.5 goals, equating to odds around [1.7].

And most of the upward pressure on those figures is exerted by Arsenal, whose matches against other big-four sides are more prone to high scores, as in the first big-four clash of this season, which had over 2.5 goals as United beat Arsenal 2-1 at Old Trafford.

If we include only those big matches involving Chelsea, Liverpool and United, the rate of under 2.5 goals rises significantly to 72%, which equates to odds around [1.4]. Those figures indicate that the market will underestimate the likelihood of under 2.5 goals in Sunday's big clash, and in this season's other league matches involving two of Chelsea, Liverpool and United.


One question for Betfair punters looking at the Chelsea v Liverpool clash is what effect the absence of Petr Cech will have on the game. The Chelsea goalkeeper is suspended following his red card in the 3-1 defeat at Wigan, and that is likely to be one of the main talking points in the build-up to Sunday's big game.

Based on the stats, however, Cech's absence is likely to have a negligible effect. Since his return from the horrific injury inflicted by Stephen Hunt's knee in October 2006, there is statistical support for the view that Cech has not been quite as secure as before.

In that period, Chelsea have kept a clean sheet in 56% of the league games started by Cech, but the figure is almost identical in games where they have been without Cech. And Chelsea's points average without Cech is higher, at 2.37, than the 2.17 with Cech in the starting line-up.

With Cech having little influence on Chelsea's clean-sheet figures, a shutout for the hosts on Sunday may be more likely than the market indicates. In big-four clashes at home since the 2004/05 season, Chelsea have kept nine clean sheets out of 15 - figures that took a knock last season when they conceded in all three games against Manchester United, Liverpool and Arsenal.

That still leaves their clean-sheet percentage at 60%, close to the overall figures whether or not Cech is in the team. That percentage equates to odds of [1.67], far lower than the odds that will be offered on a Chelsea clean sheet on Sunday.
The trend may be against a Chelsea clean sheet, having conceded in their last five home league games against other big-four teams, but punters should not rule it out just because Cech is not in goal, nor should his absence be a reason for an adjustment in Chelsea's win odds, currently [2.24] to back.