Premier League Betting: Bolton v Blackburn Rovers

Premier League / Richard Walker / 21 November 2009 / Leave a Comment

Big, bruising and not likely to back down. Kevin Davies is favourite to open the scoring as Bolton host Blackburn.

"This Lancashire hotpot puts together two sets of fans that were made to loathe each other. Even if not quite the hatred of Burnley, Rovers’ fans like to peer down their nose at the ruffians of Lostock, Bolton."

This may not be the most glamorous match of the weekend but it's a good old north-western Derby where agression and spirit will be aplenty. And who knows? It may even end up being a classic, says Richard Walker.

It's not hard to imagine Sam Allardyce casting a wistful glance or two around The Reebok on Sunday lunch-time - perhaps letting his mind wander back to all he achieved with Bolton Wanderers.

I say this because, despite his best intentions, Big Sam failed to convince Newcastle United quickly enough and is now struggling to have that Bolton-like impression on the good folk of Blackburn Rovers.

Perhaps he and the Trotters were made for each other? Time will tell. This Lancashire hotpot puts together two sets of fans that were made to loathe each other. Even if not quite the hatred of Burnley, Rovers' fans like to peer down their nose at the ruffians of Lostock, Bolton.

If Gary Megson's side are to win, they'll be bucking a trend in that they've not beaten their visitors in eight attempts at The Reebok - and Rovers haven't lost the last five meetings of this fixture.

They've had two weeks to stew on a pummelling at Aston Villa, preceded by a thrashing at Chelsea. Take Wanderers to at least avoid defeat: lay Blackburn to a [3.55] liability in a match odds section which sees the home team at [2.34] to back and the draw priced up at [3.4].

The importance to both sides of a result will, I believe, manifest itself in some mistakes. There's been plenty of them being made at the back for the Whites of late, while Rovers have shipped 18 goals on their travels. Backing over 2.5 goals at [1.99] (it's the same price, of course, for Unders) - even accounting for neither side's productivity in front of goal - seems like a sensible move given the need for three points.

Both sides have largely fully-fit squads to choose from. Keith Andrews will be a little weary from his exertions with Ireland, no doubt, however Vince Grella should be back from injury for Rovers. Jlloyd Samuel is back from suspension so Paul Robinson will probably make way. Joey O'Brien and Sean Davis are the only definite absentees for the hosts. Tamir Cohen - with three goals Wanderers' joint-top marksman - may miss out and that would be a genuine blow to Megson's plans.

David Dunn's four league goals makes him the most prolific player taking the field for this clash. That's more a statement about the rest of them than him, of course. Kevin Davies and Benni McCarthy probably should be leading the way for the two sides - but neither has found form this term. I'd perhaps be looking towards a set-piece, where the likes of Matt Taylor (Bolton) and Morten Gamst Pedersen (Blackburn) come into the reckoning.

I'd back both for first goalscorer in actual fact. Taylor is around [9.0] and Pederson more like [22.0]. Why not? There is no outstanding candidate here. I think there will be enough goals to get us past the Over 2.5 watershed - but the source of them is up for debate. The market jolly is Kevin Davies, at [7.0], and it's those odds alone which should be a guide to you to look at some fancier-priced options.

This is one match I can see opening up after the break. With the teams on 11 (Bolton) and 13 (Blackburn) points respectively, neither manager wants a draw but this is likely to be 4-5-1 meets 4-5-1 - at least until the break. Back The Draw (HT) in the half-time market, a [2.14] shot.

It's the kind of game you associate a goalless draw with but I just can't see it this time. Cover it by all means with a small back stake at odds of [11.5], but I'd be more happy laying that scoreline myself and looking at the likes of 2-2 to back [17.5], with a cover of 1-1 [7.6].

Logic tells us this is not a game to have armchair punters rooted to their seats, but the need for success brings a desperation which just might make this a thriller.

Best Bets:

Lay Blackburn @ [3.55]; Back Over 2.5 goals @ [1.99]; Back The Draw (HT) @ [2.14].