Premier League Betting: Aston Villa v Everton

Premier League / Richard Walker / 12 April 2009 / Leave a comment

With injury concerns to key players and an in-form Everton side desperate to overtake them coming to town, Aston Villa may have to wait yet another week before getting back to winnng ways, says Richard Walker. Best bet: Lay Aston Villa @ [2.3].

There's a lot to be said for following current form, particularly when it comes to a match-up between two pretty even sides.

Take Aston Villa and Everton's last seven Premier League games for example. It's seven games ago that Sunday's hosts last recorded three points, while David Moyes' super-resilient Toffees have lost only once across a similar number of games.

And while Martin O'Neill has said this week "we can talk till we're blue in the face, we just need to win a match", the situation's not quite as desperate as those words paint - for Villains fans can look back on a developmental season during which they've probably over-achieved if we look at all factors in the round.

However, they're not playing well and they've only won five at home. Albeit they might not lose, but I think it makes perfect sense to Lay them to a [2.3] liability, rather than perhaps backing either The Draw at [3.4] or Everton at [3.65].

Everton's injury list is a short as it's been for some time; only four main men - Joseph Yobo, Yakubu, Mikel Arteta and Victor Anichebe - are definitely ruled out. There was a doubt over keeper Tim Howard but he's expected to play. So no big shakes on their side while, for Villa, they continue to badly miss skipper Martin Laursen at the back with Emile Heskey an equally unwelcome absentee at the other end of the pitch.

The visiting side's naturally dogged approach to away games always lends me to the belief that there won't be loads of goals. Indeed, Villa might also be without virus-hit Gabby Agbonlahor and that would be further reason to believe the Toffees won't be exposed for pace. So backing Under 2.5 goals at [1.74] looks a good thing in my book. Backing Overs at [2.28] would see you clamouring for an early goal - and probably a home one at that, to force Everton's hand.

When the market really takes shape, I can see the Correct Score of 1-1 being popular, with the Match Odds relatively even all round. It'll be around [7.2] to back but I'd cover it with 1-0 to Everton at [10.0] - a tempting proposition for the masters of "get in front and hold on" football. Villa fans might sooner migrate towards a 2-1 home win [10.0] or even the [38.0] being laid about a 3-2 Villains victory.

It may also pay to have a look at the price on offer to support an Everton clean sheet. Not the most liquid of markets, but you'll find enough layers around to take you on at a price most likely around the [3.5] mark.

So if we take both Heskey and Agbonlahor out of the equation, the goalscoring burden will fall upon the shoulders of both John Carew and Ashley Young if the hosts are to prevail. In the To Score list, they'll likely be around [3.75] and [5.0] respectively, however it's Louis Saha whom I think can take advantage of a less-than-certain Villa back-line. Back him at roughly [3.75] To Score. I've overlooked Tim Cahill with some regret, since he's done me a favour on no fewer than three separate occasions this term.

Draw/Everton [8.0] and Draw/Draw [5.0] are the two HT/FT options which attract my attention, however you might be seeing this one entirely differently. Villa/Villa is a [3.75] chance while Everton/Everton can be backed at [6.8].

A bit of a conundrum this game - but I'm hoping David Moyes' boys are at their belligerent best.