Premier League Betting: Arsenal for the title?

Premier League / Andrew Atherley / 19 August 2009 / Leave a Comment

"Central to Arsenal’s revival was the return to fitness of Cesc Fabregas in April, and his two-goal performance against Everton emphasised his leading role when it comes to orchestrating the destruction of lesser teams."

Arsenal's stunning win over Everton shows that their excellent form at the end of last season can be extended into 2009/10, says Andrew Atherley. Meanwhile, tread carefully with the Europa League teams...

Most of the kneejerk reactions following the opening round of Premier League games will turn out to be wide of the mark, but Arsenal's 6-1 thrashing of Everton was one result that should stand the test of time.

The important factor underpinning the Goodison romp was that this emphatic victory was entirely in keeping with Arsenal's much-improved form since early spring. They are now on a 10-match winning run against Premier League teams from outside the big four, dating back to early March, and all nine of the wins in the league have been by two or more goals (the other was 2-1 against Hull in the FA Cup).

That is a strong pointer to another clear-cut win on Saturday at home to Portsmouth, and there should be plenty of interest in Arsenal to beat the -1.5 Asian handicap at odds around [1.7]. Portsmouth seem sure to be in the bottom half of the table and that is the type of opposition Arsenal have particularly relished in recent months - their last seven results against bottom-half finishers from last season, home and away, have been 4-1, 3-0, 2-0, 4-1, 3-1, 4-0 and 3-1.

Looking at those results, over 2.5 goals at similar odds is a good bet too - the problem in this case being that Arsenal may have to do all the scoring.

Central to Arsenal's revival was the return to fitness of Cesc Fabregas in April after a three-month layoff, and his two-goal performance against Everton emphasised his leading role when it comes to orchestrating the destruction of lesser teams.

Over the past two seasons, when Fabregas has started, Arsenal have won 29 out of 42 (69%) league games against teams from outside the big four, with 22 of those 29 wins being by two or more goals. Arsenal, then, have a better than 50% record of winning such games by two-plus goals, home and away.

Backing them at -1 on the Asian handicap on the road, when available, is a solid bet when Fabregas is in the starting line-up, as their defeat rate is extremely low (just two out of 20 in the past two seasons).

Defying a -1.5 Asian handicap at home is not such a sure thing (a 55% conversion rate against all teams from outside the big four), but their recent figures against bottom-half teams indicate there is value in them to do so against Portsmouth on Saturday.
When they do win at home against non-big four teams, as they will be expected to do on Saturday, 71% of the wins have been by two-plus goals, which points to decent value in Arsenal at -1.5 on the Asian handicap for those who don't want to back the win at [1.22].

With Arsenal on a roll after their midweek Champions League win at Celtic, albeit in fortuitous circumstances, now could be the time to take a position on them in some of the long-term season markets on Betfair.

In 19 league games in 2009, Arsenal have accumulated 40 points and, with their form on the up, they could sustain a title challenge deep into the season, as they did two seasons ago. Their odds in the Winner 2009/10 market are [7.2] and it looks worth backing them now, with a view to trading. Similarly, their odds will contract in the Top 2 Finish market, from the current [3.4], and Top 3 Finish, from [1.94], if their good run continues and one or two of their rivals don't start as strongly.

As well as Arsenal's 2009 form, which puts them on course for 80 points, the record with Fabregas is relevant too - overall their points average when he has started in the past two seasons would give them 79 points over 38 games. On both measures, the indications are that Arsenal will be in the thick of the title battle, and finishing higher than fourth is a highly realistic aim. Backing them for a Top 3 Finish at [1.94] looks a good bet.

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The Europa League kicks off in earnest this week, and that may not be good news for the participating English clubs - Everton, Aston Villa and Fulham - when they return to Premier League action at the weekend.

Teams involved in early-season Uefa Cup games regularly trip up immediately afterwards, and the best policy is usually to lay rather than back these teams. In the past three seasons, looking at post-Uefa Cup results in the Premier League up to late September/early October, the win rate for these teams was a low 33%.

That dropped slightly when discounting results against other Uefa Cup participants, and most of the wins were achieved against below-average opposition - there were just three wins from 10 post-Uefa Cup games last season, against West Brom, Stoke and Sunderland.

Only one team (Blackburn in 2006/07) has done better than a 50% win rate in post-Uefa Cup games, and most do much worse. Everton, who visit Burnley on Sunday, drew both such games last season, lost both the previous season, and during their previous European campaign in 2005/06 lost all four of their post-Europe games, without scoring a single goal.

More slip-ups can be expected this season, and the advice is to tread warily with the Uefa Cup teams. In the long run, based on results over the past three seasons, two winning strategies are to lay them when they are odds-on at home and to back a home win when they go on their travels. The laying option has worked particularly well.