Bet on Everton to topple the Gunners

Premier League / Frank Gregan / 27 December 2007 / Leave a Comment

Former non-league manager Frank Gregan fancies Toffees to pull off a home upset on Saturday

A couple of weeks ago our editor wrote a piece about achieving value in the football markets. It struck a chord with me as it is part of dual criteria that I apply before making my bet: namely value and excitement.

Excitement is achieved through it being an event that I want to watch and selecting a bet that will keep me interested even if the game proves to be dour. The bet is that little added extra, the ice and lemon in the G & T, the capers on the smoked salmon and the belch after the chicken vindaloo!

Arsenal visit Everton this Saturday for the early evening live TV game and I fancy given their recent mini crisis the Gunners might just be a false price. "Mini crisis" may appear a bit harsh but they have taken only eight points from their last five games at an average of 1.6 points per game. Given that prior to that five game spell their average points tally per game was 2.56 it is clear that their league form has hit a significant dip which started with the 1-1 draw at Newcastle on December 5th. Those statistics would look a lot worse had Robbie Keane been successful from the penalty spot last Saturday.

Even more disturbing is their recent away form, only two points from a possible nine. Conversely, Everton are flying and have only lost once in their last nine league games due to a very late penalty at Old Trafford last Sunday. During that time they have amassed an impressive twenty points at 2.22 points per game. Their 'bounce back' on Boxing Day against Bolton proved that normal service has been resumed and confidence will be sky-high in that dressing room at present.

Having taken all of those facts on board I think most "shrewdies" will look at this fixture and give Everton a favourite's chance but the market does not reflect this. They are currently priced at [3.6] which I consider to be very, very tempting. It represents outstanding value.

There are other bets out there that catch the eye. Everton proved that they can hit the back of the net when they put seven past Sunderland recently. Should Arsenal find their touch again and experience a little more luck in front of goal than they have been having in recent weeks a goal fest is not out of the question. Odds of [13.0] are available on 'any unquoted' in the correct score market and that may prove to be a big price. I also keep flicking back to the over/under 2.5 goals market and rub my eyes in disbelief at the [2.16] available to take on there being more than 2.5 goals.

It's such an impressive menu, I think I will have to order more than one course. I will be laying Arsenal at [2.24], backing more than 2.5 goals at [2.16] and having a few bob on any other score at [13.0] on the correct score market. Another one of those fancy 4-4 draws would suit me nicely!