Euro 2012 Odds: Why the Republic of Ireland won't qualify

Euro 2012 / The Betfair Contrarian / 09 November 2011 / 1 Comments

Deja vu. Two years ago Thierry Henry's handball denied Ireland and further heartbreak awaits the Boys in Green, this time against Estonia.

"Of the 13 European Championships, the Republic of Ireland have attended just one, and that was way back in 1988 when their interest lasted three games. Even on that occasion, they were fortunate."

The Republic of Ireland are just two games away from making it to the Euro 2012 Championships next summer and are hot favourites to get the better of Estonia in the play-offs. But the Betfair Contrarian is far from convinced they'll go through.

The Republic of Ireland were able to hide behind Thierry Henry's wandering hands when it all went wrong in Paris two years ago, but this time there will be no excuses for failure. Up against a country who until recently were viewed as nonentities on a football pitch, and with home advantage in the second leg, the luck of the Irish appears to be in full flow. The Contrarian anticipates a spectacular collapse though, and advises you to lay them to qualify at [1.4]...

It's the same old story

If any nation should know that getting into the play-offs is only half of the battle, it is the Republic of Ireland. This is their sixth stab at reaching an international tournament via the side entrance, and they've encountered a happy ending just once before, when they faced Iran rather than a European rival. Don't be fooled into thinking that it's a case of receiving tough draws either. Not everyone who has stopped them has been of the calibre of France. Belgium and Turkey have also blocked their path before.

The Republic of Ireland have no Euro legacy

Of the 13 European Championships, the Republic of Ireland have attended just one, and that was way back in 1988 when their interest lasted three games. Even on that occasion, they were fortunate. Four wins from eight in Group 7 didn't look like enough to progress, and wouldn't have been, were it not for Scotland shocking table-topping Bulgaria in Sofia late on in their final fixture.

The aura of invincibility has gone...

Not much was made of it, as it didn't ultimately have an impact at the time, but the consolation goal that the Boys in Green conceded last time out against Armenia to end a spectacular eight-match clean sheet streak could have far greater long-term implications. For example, when Manchester United were breached after setting a Premier League record of 14 clean sheets in a row in 2009, they endured a spell of six matches without one, shipping 11 along the way. John O'Shea's absence - he looks certain to miss at least the first leg - won't help matters, and Estonia are primed to take advantage. Of the eight play-off participants, they were the second most prolific in group games against top-five teams, with 13 goals in eight outings. By contrast, the Republic of Ireland managed just ten.

..and their attacking options are limited

Kevin Doyle is suspended for the all-important first leg, his obvious understudy Shane Long is also absent through injury and another alternative, Leon Best, is also ruled out of at least the trickier test in Tallinn. That leaves Republic of Ireland reliant on Robbie Keane, who hasn't scored in four international appearances and has only recently returned from a lay-off of his own. And given Giovanni Trapattoni's belief that he and Simon Cox are too similar, it looks like Stoke's Jon Walters - untested at this level with a mere three caps and no goals - will be called into action as his partner.

Estonia relish the big occasion

After signalling their climb up the European ladder in World Cup qualifying with a win over Belgium and a draw with Turkey, Estonia have excelled in the current process, taking second in Group C ahead of World Cup qualifiers Serbia and Slovenia and the sometime competitive Northern Ireland, who they ominously swatted aside 4-1 and 2-1. They shone as underdogs throughout the campaign, enjoying what would have been aggregate successes over Serbia and Slovenia yet losing to the Faroe Islands. They were also superb travellers, winning on the road against all three rivals for second place.

At [3.5] to progress, Estonia are outsiders, a billing that the Republic of Ireland usually prefer. After all, the one time that they made it through to a major tournament in the last 18 years (the 2002 World Cup) was when paired with Portugal and Netherlands, and their nearest miss came in France. It is when cast as favourites that problems emerge.

Comments (1)

1. Mark | 09 November 2011

   You throw out a lot of facts and try to paste them to opinions, which are also based in a degree of truth.

   But if you were putting your life savings on it even you would back Ireland.