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Hi Mike, just a few comments to make regarding your assessment. Before every international tournament I do an in-depth study & I was fortunate enough to see 17 games in Germany 06, including both semis & the final. My predictions before that tournament were that I couldn't point to the winner but I did state as a matter of public record (ask The Boz)that neither Brazil, Argentina, Germany, Spain, England or Portugal would win it. My analysis of Euro 08 varies from yours on the following points.
1)Germany still do not have the talent, they couldn't handle the Italians in Germany & I see no evidence of why they should be able to now.
2)France have no Zidane. Game breaker & penalty taker extraordinaire. They do still have an incredibly good defence.
3)Portugal lack discipline & tactical nous under fire (NB: against 10 man England in Germany they still couldn't score in open play.)Brilliant at 'cheating', poor when things go wrong.
4)Spain have immense talent but lack consistency.
5) The Dutch may be over their player-power era but have serious problems adapting to the necessary style of internationals. They also have a questionable temperament when things go wrong eg Germany 06.
6)Italy are still improving. They are also 'tournament proven' & World Cup winners have gone on to win the following Euro. Why you think they won't be as good is a mystery to me.

The difference between Euro's & World Cups is that Euro's quite often throw up an unexpected winner & the World Cup never does. Remember the Czechs being dragged back of their hols because Yugoslavia were excluded? How about Greece beating Portugal twice in Portugal 2004? Home advantage is also more negligible in Euro's, so I can't give any chance to Austria & only an outsiders one to Switzerland.
So I'm looking at the possibility of the same 4 semi-finalists as per Germany ie: France, Italy, Portugal, Germany & a small saver on the Czechs, whose campaign in 06 was ruined by significant early injuries.
My last point on this is that 'the best laid plans' are often wrecked by referees, usually those who love the spotlight & favour flashing the card at every opportunity. International tournaments are a big stage for them to perform on. Always check out who's refereeing which games, my analysis (over decades) shows that Scandinavians generally manage best & Southern Europeans (particularly Spanish & Portugese)do worst.
The umissable games could be:
1)Italy v Portugal
2)Holland v Germany
The Unmissable game as scheduled:
France v Italy

Can I also say that I'm in complete agreement with you about goalkeeper captains & the two types of characters you identified as fitting the bill. The job as England's future captain is interesting but Capello has alreay stated what his first requirement is 'discipline'! He thinks a lot like Erikkson I think, do you agree? In which case he also values 'calm' on the pitch & in the dressing room. Doesn't this speak against John Terry & Rio Ferdinand & in favour of Gerard & Owen? I'm betting Gerard. What about you?

Rianbowwardy | 21 March 2008

Hi Rian (I hope calling you Rian is ok).

May I first thank you immensely for your detailed and excellent post - I appreciate the time and effort you must have put into it.

I take all your points on board about the individual countries that you mention. Yes Portugal lack discipline at times, but in Ronaldo, Nani and Quaresma they have the ability to destroy any team. They remind me slightly of Keegan's Newcastle (first time around) in that they could be brilliant going forward but I'm that confident about them defensively - however I do feel they will outscore most teams and go well.

Regarding France, they are excellent in defence and a bit like Portugal they have some fine youngsters in Ben Arfa and Benzema.

Yes I agree that Germany may not have the talent, or the individual talent at least, but they do have an unrivalled team spirit and collectiveness about them when it comes to big tournaments. I also think that in Podolski they have an exceptional forward - I really like this guy.

So my three against the field would be Germany, Portugal and France (not very original I know).

As for captain of England I'm 100% in agreement about John Terry. He is the first to berate refs when a decision goes against his team and I don't think that's what Capello wants - or will stand for.

Gerrard is more in the mould of an inspirational captain in the sense that he can lift his team-mates either by his brilliance on the field or by his motivational skills and determination. He is also a captain who will pull players away from explosive situations rather than get involved himself. I think he is an outstanding player and would be a great choice to be England captain.

Once again, many thanks for your reply. I look forward to reading more of your excellent comments.

Mike | 22 March 2008

Thanks Mike.
I'm wondering more and more about the England captaincy, sparked by stuff on here & a discussion with somebody who has spent time with Steven Gerard. Perhaps there is far more to this than meets the eye or gets into the public domain? Given the PR discipline that players are under I'm wondering if there's actually no love lost between Gerard & the 3 or 4 Chelsea regulars in the England squad. I can't see Terry or Lampard respecting Gerard in the same way that they are forced to respect Beckham & given all the stuff that's gone on about Gerard v Lampard could it be that the Chelsea players are capable of a collective disrespect or attitude, especially once they're actually on the pitch? I so wish I had some video footage of their games together, just to check out their body language & gestures. Any info or insights to explore this?
Dave.

Rainbowwardy | 24 March 2008

Hi Dave,

I think the 'Lampard v Gerrard' saga has been going on for years and was sparked in the main from internet forums, pub talk, media etc and I think Gerrard is on record as saying the comparisons between them both doesn't bother him.

From what I've seen I have no reason to believe that they don't get on well with each other, but I'm a Northerner who has never been in the company of these guys or people close to them - so you will no doubt know more than me on this.

Regarding footage, you can usually get a lot of stuff on 'youtube', but again, from what I've seen, their body language doesn't give anything away.

I see that Rio Ferdinand got the nod as captain for tomorrow's game - what do you think of this, good or bad?

I like Rio, he is a hell of a defender as well as being a footballer who can bring the ball out of defence. He very rarely gets involved with incidents on the pitch and he seems to be a man with a lot of determination and influence. So basically, I think it could be a good shout.

How much we can read into him being captain tomorrow as a long term thing is debatable. What do you think?

Mike | 25 March 2008

Hi Mike,
I should have seen it coming really, but despite decades of study I'm still learning. It wasn't going to be any Chelsea player, or Gerard, that much should have been clear to me because of Gerard's inadequacies as displayed against Croatia & more recently for Liverpool, particularly v Man U. There are a few things that are worth watching out for tonight, from which we'll learn a lot. The first is how the defence performs. If you study defences seperate from team performance since 1998 England's is in the top 5 in the world in tournament play. Remember Japan/S.Korea 2002, when, despite being in the so called 'group of death' we only conceded goals to Brazil, the eventual winners? Remember 10 men gainst Portugal in Germany? The defence against Croatia was a totally new combination which was where it all went wrong. I think Capello knows what his ideal defence is and as a coach I suspect he's always known when not to mess with things. So despite this being a friendly & whatever changes he may make for now,I expect to see the same faces when it comes to qualifying for 2010.
The second thing is that there were signs against Switzerland that he was eradicating England's worst trait, falling back too deep when they get a lead. Most people tend to forget that some of England's best results have come when they've fallen behind eg 5-1 in Germany,but this creates a serious dilemma, you can't go out to play this way. When it comes to holding on to the lead who better to tell you than an Italian? Having seen a new beginning against the Swiss I'm keen to see further progress on this one and it might just be why he wants Ferdinand as skipper. He definitely needs a defender who's capable of moving out with the ball at his feet and that's not Terry either. What's specifically interesting about Ferdinand is that he's extremely clever at knowing how to play referees and when he can get away with what. I don't think he has any problems with Terry either.
He knows that under FIFA's current guidelines he's the only player entitled to speak to the ref & that ref's will look for him when they've got problems. In other words, he doesn't need to go charging at him, the way Terry does. He's much better equipped 'emotionally' and knows that. I think he'll keep the job now, which poses the interesting question, who will capatain England when he's not unavailable or has to come off the field? Will it be Terry? If it isn't then we'll know a lot more.
The last thing I'm watching for is if and how he plays Gerard. I've wondered for a while now how Gerard would perform 'up front'. To understand why you have to go back a long way, to the early days of Glen Hoddle. One season Spurs had no forwards to start the season with and were forced to play Hoddle up front. You'd have to look up the exact stats somewhere (I've forgotten the precise numbers) but he scored an amazing number of goals. This wasn't a fluke, most high scoring mid-fielders could do the same. They understand the right space to be in because they're used to delivering into it.
I've become sufficiently motivated from this discussion to download stats on Capello's championship winning teams, if I can find them. And I'm keeping stats and my eyes on all the WC qualifiers going on round the world this week. If you'd like I could summarise and send them but I'm not sure if this is the right place, I don't normally share them with the world. But if you can find my email address I'd be willing to keep you informed in the run-up to 2010. Or even write a piece if needs be. Thanks for being interested. I should also say that International Football is my serious interest, not club football.
Dave

Dave Ward | 26 March 2008

You're forgetting England also conceded against Sweden in a 1-1 draw at the 2002 World Cup, other than the two against Brazil.

Tom March | 26 March 2008

You're forgetting England also conceded against Sweden in a 1-1 draw at the 2002 World Cup, other than the two against Brazil.

Tom March | 26 March 2008

Thanks Tom you're right of course. And England were actually far luckier v Nigeria in the intense heat.

Dave Ward | 26 March 2008