Euro 2008

Match 24 - Russia v Sweden

Russia v Sweden: Match odds, correct score, first goal odds, over/under 1.5 goals

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• Russia v Sweden: Half time/full time, asian handicap, to score, bookings odds/bookings index
• Russia v Sweden: Over/Under 2.5 Goals
• Russia v Sweden: Match Odds, Correct Score, First Goalscorer, Half Time, Corners
• Russia v Sweden: Half-Time, HT/FT, clean sheet markets
• Russia v Sweden: Match odds, correct score, first goal odds, over/under 1.5 goals

Similar to the Czech Republic against Turkey, this match is a winner takes all affair. One can only hope we get as much drama and excitement as that match in Geneva.

Sweden beat the Greeks fair and square first time out but many will feel them to be a little unfortunate not to get something out of their match with Spain. David Villa's late goal was cruel on Sweden after they had proved to be more than a match for the eventual winners of Group D.

Remember, a draw will do for Sweden, Russia have to win. The option would be to lay Russia or take the draw as better value than a Sweden win.

Russia were well beaten by Spain in their first match although 4-1 was possibly a liitle flattering to the winners. Their performance against Greece was good enough to earn a 1-0 win over the defending champions but the verdict has to be that we've yet to see the best of this side.

For both these countries the knock-out phase starts one match earlier than expected but at least for Sweden they have goal difference on their side. A draw will suffice for Lars Lagerback's side and that makes them the clear favourites to progress.

The outcome will be decided by 90 minutes of action high up in Innsbruck. Our job is to use the available data to predict who will be staying and who will be leaving come the final whistle.

As per usual we will be examining this match from two perspectives. Firstly, we will highlight the 10 Year Trends of each side. Looking at their record in competitive matches over the past decade and drawing conclusions from this data.

Secondly, we will examine the finer details of head-to-head form and previous tournament results, better known as the Match Facts, to formulate the best way of approaching these matches on Betfair. And, remember, the more information at your disposal, the better your decision making will be and, we trust, the better you profits will be.

Together this analysis will be used to predict the outcome of four key markets for each match. We will discuss the outright match result, the correct score market, first goalscorer and also the Over/Under 1.5 goals market.

Armed with this information you'll be ready to get stuck into the Betfair markets.

Sweden v Russia - 10 Year Trends

These are all competitive matches since January 1998. No friendlies just World Cup qualifiers and finals plus Euro qualifiers and finals.

Sweden - P65 W40 D16 L9 F123 A37, clean sheets 37/65 (56%)
Russia - P62 W34 D14 L14 F109 A60, clean sheets 26/62 (41%)

The main advantage for Sweden is their miserly defence. Just 37 goals in 65 matches is a tremendous effort (0.56 goals/game) and they score at a decent enough rate as well (1.89 goals/game). Russia have a similar profile but offer much less in both departments. What's more, in the clean sheet analysis they lag behind Sweden by some 15% - which is a lot. So far, it's advantage Sweden.

Sweden v Russia - Match Facts

No real change in our opinion here either. Sweden hold the slight edge on past meetings - but only just. In fact the overall head-to-heads suggest this match could go any one of three ways. Sweden have been dominant of late with 3 wins from the last 5 matches but these have been spread over the last 20 years! Plenty of draws though (34%) which could be a way for this match to pan out.

Lagerback hasn't presided over a golden period in Swedish history. This squad is now a little past its sell-by date and results, whilst steady, aren't stellar. A loss record of 29% is quite high compared to the very top sides and the goals for and against are similarly solid as opposed to spectacular.

Hiddink has the better record of the two managers. In terms of wins it's 57% to 43%. The problem for him is the defence. Shipping more than a goal per game will win you precious little on the international stage. Keeping a clean sheet against the Greeks is one thing, doing it against Sweden might prove to be quite another.

Sweden v Russia - Market Analysis

Outright result - it's very hard to split these two sides with the win for either Russia or Sweden pitched around the [2.78] mark. The draw at [3.4] stands out as both the biggest price, and the most over-priced option, bearing in mind these two sides have drawn 8 of 23 (34%) of previous matches. Remember, a draw will do for Sweden, Russia have to win. The option would be to lay Russia or take the draw as better value than a Sweden win.

Correct Score - a tight match is in prospect. If we focus on 1-0 either way and possibly the 1-1 we cover quite a few bases. That's three of the last four meetings, four of Sweden's six pre-tournament friendlies, Russia's last match etc. Certainly more options appeal but this particular market is open to many possibilities. The 1-1 [7.4] would be the main call but 1-0 Russia [8.8] or 1-0 Sweden [9.2] also strike a chord.

First Goalscorer - the Russian line-up poses problems here. Will Arshavin play after suspension [11.0], Pavlyuchenko [7.0] has looked their best forward thus far. For Sweden, Ibrahimovic actually represents worse value (although a bigger ego) than Henrik Larsson [8.6] whose 36 goals in 97 caps is a marginally better ratio than his strike partner.

Over/Under 1.5 goals - this could be an extremely tight match. Sweden know how to defend and Russia aren't the biggest scorers in the tournament. That said, should either side fall behind then it's all or nothing time and that can easily lead to more goalmouth action. The 'over' [1.47] does have more statistical evidence behind it but the view is this match might very well fall over the line rather than race through it.

Conclusion

Great game this one as both sides look so evenly matched. It's a tough one to call and the exchange reflects this fact with a number of tightly framed markets.

The data can be used to point you in pretty much any direction you choose - although a Russian victory is the hardest case to argue. A lay of Guus Hiddink's side does look the best call on the figures available.

As for the other markets, it's a question of sneaking what value you can on Betfair before moving onto those mouth-watering QFs.