Champions League Betting: Villarreal v Manchester United

Champions League / Mike Norman / 25 November 2008 / 2 Comments

With both United and Villareal all but qualified for the knockout stages of the Champions League tonight's match does not have the makings of a European classic, says Mike Norman.

Football has a cruel habit of kicking punters in the teeth, especially when you're confident of how a game will pan out, and more importantly, what the result will be.

Villarreal v Manchester United on Tuesday night affords us the luxury of having some strong pointers towards predicting the outcome of the match - especially if, like me, you believe the game will be played at a pedestrian pace with both teams - how can I put this - not playing to their full potential.

The Match Odds market has Villarreal available to back at [3.3], Manchester United at [2.82], and The Draw not far off being the favourite at just [2.86].

The reason the draw is so short in the market is because of the head-to-head history between the two teams - the three previous encounters have all finished 0-0. The situation in which they find themselves going into this game - a draw will guarantee qualification into the knock-out stages for both teams.

Some will argue that the game will be played at a cup final pace because whichever team wins tonight will top the group - no it won't.

In the last 16 of the Champions League the group winners play the group runners-up, though you can't play a team from the same nation. This means that if Manchester United were to top the group they are likely to face someone like Roma, Bayern Munich or Real Madrid. Is this any easier than finishing second in the group and playing someone like Juventus, Lyon, Inter Milan or Barcelona? The same scenario is true for Villarreal - just replace Madrid and Barcelona for Chelsea and Liverpool.

It's not surprising then that I think both managers will be happy to have a problem-free night, take a draw, and wish each other luck in the next round. Another 0-0 is available to back at [7.4] and must surely be considered in the Correct Score market, whilst the 1-1 draw is currently the favourite at [6.4].

Under 2.5 Goals is by far the most likely outcome, especially as both teams have a top striker missing (Dimitar Berbatov for United and Joseba Llorente for Villarreal), but unfortunately this is reflected in the odds - just [1.61] being available to back - [2.62] are the odds on offer for Over 2.5 Goals but I really can't see it myself.

Of course, there will be plenty of you out there who think the game will be played on its full merits and will bet accordingly. With the knowledge that United have a poor Champions League record on Spanish soil (just one win in 17 attempts) and that Villarreal have never lost a European game at their El Madrigal stadium, then the percentage call would be to lay United at around [2.82].

In the First Goalscorer market Cristiano Ronaldo is the favourite to open the scoring at [6.8], just ahead of teammate Wayne Rooney ([8.2]), United old boy Giuseppe Rossi ([8.8]) and the goal starved Carlos Tevez ([9.0]).

But I think you all know where my cash is going - it's going on that prolific marksman 'No Goalscorer' at odds of [7.4]. I'm just hoping that tonight isn't another night when the football form book is turned on its head.

Comments (2)

1. SLou | 25 November 2008

   I'm totally with you on this and think the draw is the way to play. It should be a very cautious game with few chances but I have a sneaky feeling a few might go in and the result will be 1-1.

2. SLou | 26 November 2008

   You were right I was wrong but at least I got the draw also :)