Champions League Betting: The French View

Champions League / James Eastham / 16 September 2008 / Leave a Comment

Betting.betfair.com's French football expert James Eastham talks us through what the three Ligue 1 Orange sides in the tournament - Lyon, Bordeaux and Marseille - can expect to achive in this year's Champions League and the best bets about them.

It's four years since Monaco reached the Champions League final and therefore paid out for ante-post each-way backers at [126.0] - what chance a French club going as far in this season's competition?

Slim to non-existent, I'd say - although Lyon are worth backing in the opening round. The [40.0] on Claude Puel's side to win the tournament has no appeal, but they're a great price to win Group F.

It makes no sense that Lyon are [2.8] second-favourites behind Bayern Munich ([2.38]) to win their opening pool. OL, as they're sometimes known, have an outstanding first-round record, having accumulated 63 points during the group stages over the past five seasons. That's more than Chelsea (62), Arsenal (60), Inter (60), Man Utd (60), AC Milan (57) and Real Madrid (57), the other six teams to have qualified every year.

It's hardly surprising, given their excellent points total, that Lyon have won their opening-round group in four of the past five seasons. In contrast, Bayern Munich have managed to do likewise only once in their last four attempts. Back Lyon while you can.

Laurent Blanc's Bordeaux, who are [10.5] to win Group A and [3.05] to qualify for the knock-out stages, have the squad to steal second place ahead of Roma behind Chelsea - but I cannot see them troubling Luiz Felipe Scolari's side at Stamford Bridge on Tuesday night. Les Girondins arrive in London plagued by self-doubt, having lost two from two on the road in 2008-09 and collected just seven points from their opening five league games.

My fear is they'll be overrun in midfield, because they have only one holding player worthy of the name in Alou Diarra. The visitors will also be vulnerable down the flanks, since the increasingly reckless Franck Jurietti is expected to cover for Mathieu Chalme (suspended) at right-back. The last time Jurietti played on the right, rather than his preferred left, was against PSG in a league game last month - and he made a basic error that led to PSG's winning goal. To make matters worse, Diego Placente has yet to fully settle into the left-back role following his move from San Lorenzo last month, so Ashley Cole and Jose Bosingwa ought to wreak havoc if they play with anything like the vivacity they've shown in the early weeks of the Premier League.

Chelsea's price of [1.3] won't attract many backers, but Chelsea Half-time/Full-time [1.87] is a fair alternative. The average time of Chelsea's first goal in four matches this season is 15 minutes, while the average time of the first goal Bordeaux have conceded in the four fixtures where the opposition have scored is 25 minutes.

Marseille lost 4-0 at home to Liverpool in this competition last season, but the chances of a repeat scoreline when the two sides meet again on Tuesday night are as slim as French hopes of lifting the trophy. L'OM are mentally much tougher now and in high spirits, too, having won five and drawn two of seven games this season. Liverpool, [2.32] favourites to win, arrive in similarly excellent form, but despite Rafa's Euro expertise, Marseille's price of [3.8] seems a little unfair to me. This is a side that has averaged 2.14 goals per game and is likely to challenge for the title across the channel this season.

Marseille with a +0.25-goal start on the Asian handicap at [2.0] is tempting, although the prospect of Fernando Torres' searing pace coming up against an improving but occasionally leaden-footed Marseille central defensive partnership of Ronald Zubar and Hilton is just about enough to put me off. Take a watching brief on this one - Lyon and Chelsea are your best bets this week.

Recommended bets:

Lyon to win Group F ([2.8])
Chelsea Half-time/Full-time v Bordeaux ([1.87])

(A Message from the Radio Producer - Use the media player below to listen to James' appearance on Betfair Radio earlier this afternoon as we looked ahead to tonight's matches)